MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	19	20	24	29	19	21	19	18	20	24
Exceeded High		11	14	14	23	20	8	14	15	13	16	13
Scenario Percentage		69%	74%	70%	96%	69%	42%	67%	79%	72%	80%	54%
Avg Max Increase		12.11%	9.20%	9.73%	11.81%	10.30%	9.32%	14.08%	13.31%	11.30%	10.35%	9.02%
Max Increase		24.52%	21.14%	21.88%	36.29%	20.56%	22.42%	53.11%	39.65%	27.04%	23.85%	19.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		12	17	19	16	17	13	13	14	17	14	7
Avg Max Decline		0.21%	-4.18%	-4.04%	-1.88%	-1.00%	-2.20%	-1.94%	-2.12%	-3.72%	-2.76%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-2.19%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-8.42%	-6.85%	-5.90%	-8.72%	-10.28%	-10.41%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	13	6	6	5	8	7	17	6	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	25	24	21	15	25	24	25	27	24	21
Penetrated Low		21	17	13	17	12	19	17	22	21	15	8
Scenario Percentage		88%	68%	54%	81%	80%	76%	71%	88%	78%	63%	38%
Avg Max Decline		8.50%	9.21%	8.32%	8.60%	7.58%	8.53%	9.06%	9.58%	10.78%	10.88%	5.82%
Max Decline		22.98%	19.67%	36.65%	35.36%	20.98%	17.68%	22.35%	20.81%	21.46%	25.88%	9.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	18	18	21	17	16	22	17	18	19	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.61%	-2.44%	-3.40%	-4.18%	-3.20%	-2.96%	-3.71%	-2.21%	-2.82%	-3.60%	-0.78%
Max Increase		-9.75%	-9.55%	-9.17%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-8.63%	-9.58%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-2.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	11	7	14	10	14	12	6	7	8	4
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes		Yes
High	290.00	292.25	286.25	271.50	286.00	305.00	317.00	357.75	364.75	373.25	398.75	410.75
Low	259.25	281.25	270.50	256.75	264.00	284.00	294.75	291.75	337.75	334.50	361.00	370.75
Close/Last	284.25	286.50	270.75	269.75	285.75	296.75	295.75	355.00	346.50	364.75	378.75	401.00