MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		39	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		15	20	21	24	28	20	20	20	18	19	24
Exceeded High		11	15	14	22	19	9	13	16	12	15	13
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	67%	92%	68%	45%	65%	80%	67%	79%	54%
Avg Max Increase		12.11%	9.37%	9.73%	11.85%	9.76%	8.77%	14.77%	12.97%	11.19%	10.48%	9.02%
Max Increase		24.52%	21.14%	21.88%	36.29%	20.50%	22.42%	53.11%	39.65%	27.04%	23.85%	19.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		12	17	19	16	17	12	12	15	16	14	7
Avg Max Decline		0.21%	-3.92%	-4.04%	-1.93%	-0.97%	-1.93%	-1.64%	-2.01%	-3.95%	-2.80%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-2.19%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-8.42%	-6.85%	-5.90%	-8.72%	-10.28%	-10.41%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	13	6	5	4	6	7	18	6	2
2020 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		39	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	24	23	21	16	24	25	24	27	25	21
Penetrated Low		21	16	13	17	13	18	17	21	21	15	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	67%	57%	81%	81%	75%	68%	88%	78%	60%	43%
Avg Max Decline		8.50%	9.46%	8.32%	8.60%	7.61%	8.93%	9.06%	9.87%	10.78%	10.92%	6.17%
Max Decline		22.98%	19.67%	36.65%	35.36%	20.98%	17.68%	22.35%	20.81%	21.46%	25.88%	11.85%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	18	21	17	17	22	18	18	18	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.61%	-2.57%	-3.40%	-4.18%	-3.52%	-3.02%	-3.71%	-2.27%	-2.82%	-3.60%	-1.00%
Max Increase		-9.75%	-9.55%	-9.17%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-8.63%	-9.58%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-2.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	11	7	14	11	15	12	6	7	8	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No					Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	286.00	297.25	290.50	279.75	282.25	302.00	320.50	303.50	310.00	303.00	281.75	347.25
Low	248.00	271.00	267.00	268.75	268.00	280.00	293.25	281.00	285.50	270.00	248.25	259.00
Close/Last	283.50	279.00	268.25	273.50	280.25	293.50	305.25	289.75	298.25	272.75	264.25	307.00