MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		35	40	40	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Higher		14	19	19	22	24	18	19	16	16	19	21
Exceeded High		10	14	12	20	15	9	12	14	12	15	12
Scenario Percentage		71%	74%	63%	91%	63%	50%	63%	88%	75%	79%	57%
Avg Max Increase		12.97%	9.27%	9.46%	10.80%	9.49%	8.77%	14.84%	13.81%	11.19%	9.70%	8.54%
Max Increase		24.52%	21.14%	21.88%	36.29%	20.50%	22.42%	53.11%	39.65%	27.04%	23.85%	17.78%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	18	19	15	16	12	12	15	16	14	6
Avg Max Decline		0.04%	-4.27%	-4.20%	-2.27%	-1.19%	-1.93%	-1.64%	-2.34%	-3.95%	-3.16%	-1.09%
Max Decline		-2.19%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-8.42%	-6.85%	-5.90%	-8.72%	-10.28%	-10.41%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	14	6	6	4	6	8	18	6	1
2016 Contract Condition		Yes									Yes	Yes
Action		No									Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		35	40	40	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
Closed Lower		21	21	21	20	17	23	23	25	26	22	21
Penetrated Low		18	14	11	17	14	18	16	22	20	13	7
Scenario Percentage		86%	67%	52%	85%	82%	78%	70%	88%	77%	59%	33%
Avg Max Decline		8.82%	9.07%	9.29%	8.60%	8.30%	9.76%	10.05%	10.21%	11.01%	11.81%	5.26%
Max Decline		22.98%	19.67%	36.65%	35.36%	20.98%	23.83%	22.35%	20.81%	21.46%	25.88%	8.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	19	18	21	17	17	21	17	18	19	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-2.68%	-3.61%	-4.18%	-3.53%	-2.93%	-3.25%	-2.37%	-2.77%	-3.57%	-0.74%
Max Increase		-9.75%	-9.55%	-9.17%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-8.63%	-9.58%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-2.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	11	8	14	11	15	11	6	7	8	2
2016 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	280.00	289.50	289.50	262.00	239.50	240.00	235.00	243.00	218.25	209.50	199.50	215.75
Low	261.50	262.50	255.50	226.75	228.00	220.50	220.00	219.50	195.00	180.00	171.75	181.00
Close/Last	262.50	289.50	265.50	235.25	234.25	230.25	229.25	219.50	208.50	182.75	185.50	193.50