MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		32	37	37	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		13	19	17	22	22	17	18	15	15	18	19
Exceeded High		10	14	11	20	14	8	11	13	11	14	13
Scenario Percentage		77%	74%	65%	91%	64%	47%	61%	87%	73%	78%	68%
Avg Max Increase		12.97%	9.27%	9.56%	10.80%	9.53%	7.06%	11.36%	11.82%	11.38%	9.40%	8.89%
Max Increase		24.52%	21.14%	21.88%	36.29%	20.50%	14.90%	39.34%	33.21%	27.04%	23.85%	19.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	18	19	15	16	10	11	16	18	12	8
Avg Max Decline		0.04%	-4.27%	-4.30%	-2.27%	-1.17%	-2.05%	-1.52%	-2.41%	-4.26%	-3.21%	-1.68%
Max Decline		-2.19%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-8.42%	-6.85%	-5.90%	-8.72%	-10.28%	-10.41%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	13	6	6	4	6	8	20	6	2
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		32	37	37	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		19	18	20	17	16	21	21	23	24	20	20
Penetrated Low		16	12	10	14	13	16	14	20	18	12	9
Scenario Percentage		84%	67%	50%	82%	81%	76%	67%	87%	75%	60%	45%
Avg Max Decline		9.04%	8.53%	9.59%	9.68%	8.58%	9.25%	9.32%	10.04%	10.73%	11.52%	6.17%
Max Decline		22.98%	19.67%	36.65%	35.36%	20.98%	23.83%	22.35%	20.81%	21.46%	25.88%	11.85%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	20	22	16	17	21	18	19	17	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-2.71%	-3.79%	-4.09%	-3.37%	-2.72%	-3.66%	-2.40%	-2.87%	-3.54%	-1.00%
Max Increase		-9.75%	-9.55%	-9.17%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-8.63%	-9.58%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-2.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	9	7	14	10	15	12	7	7	8	3
2013 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes		Yes	Yes
High	356.00	352.75	399.00	397.50	398.00	401.25	398.00	404.00	376.25	393.50	414.75	431.00
Low	290.25	286.25	351.25	373.00	371.00	367.25	364.50	351.75	335.00	358.25	370.50	355.00
Close/Last	290.25	351.25	389.50	396.00	377.25	398.00	382.75	354.50	367.00	377.25	396.25	415.50