MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		29	34	34	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		11	16	15	21	19	17	17	13	13	16	18
Exceeded High		8	12	10	19	12	8	10	11	9	13	12
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	67%	90%	63%	47%	59%	85%	69%	81%	67%
Avg Max Increase		12.41%	8.37%	10.39%	10.64%	10.63%	7.06%	11.65%	12.17%	11.04%	9.34%	9.19%
Max Increase		24.52%	18.48%	21.88%	36.29%	20.50%	14.90%	39.34%	33.21%	27.04%	23.85%	19.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	19	16	18	10	11	16	15	12	8
Avg Max Decline		0.15%	-4.30%	-4.01%	-2.25%	-0.49%	-2.05%	-1.09%	-2.59%	-3.41%	-2.65%	-1.31%
Max Decline		-2.19%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-3.61%	-6.85%	-4.39%	-8.72%	-8.58%	-8.53%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	9	11	7	6	4	6	7	19	6	2
2010 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		29	34	34	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		18	18	19	15	16	18	19	22	23	19	18
Penetrated Low		16	12	10	12	13	14	12	20	17	12	7
Scenario Percentage		89%	67%	53%	80%	81%	78%	63%	91%	74%	63%	39%
Avg Max Decline		9.04%	8.53%	9.59%	9.65%	8.58%	8.88%	9.57%	10.04%	10.32%	11.46%	5.92%
Max Decline		22.98%	19.67%	36.65%	35.36%	20.98%	23.83%	22.35%	20.81%	21.46%	25.88%	9.25%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	18	20	24	16	18	22	18	19	19	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-2.71%	-3.79%	-3.91%	-3.37%	-2.60%	-4.13%	-2.40%	-2.80%	-3.54%	-0.89%
Max Increase		-9.75%	-9.55%	-9.17%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-8.63%	-9.58%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-2.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	9	7	13	10	15	13	7	7	8	4
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	295.50	304.25	266.75	251.50	259.50	284.75	290.75	289.00	288.00	247.00	233.75	220.00
Low	245.00	245.75	224.00	228.50	225.50	242.50	270.00	259.00	227.00	225.00	205.75	193.50
Close/Last	292.75	256.50	232.00	246.50	255.50	276.00	275.75	285.00	237.25	230.50	208.00	205.25