MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	26	31	31	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	10	15	14	19	17	17	15	12	12	16	16
Exceeded High	7	11	9	17	10	8	9	10	8	13	11
Scenario Percentage	70%	73%	64%	89%	59%	47%	60%	83%	67%	81%	69%
Avg Max Increase	13.79%	8.38%	9.82%	10.68%	11.74%	7.06%	8.57%	10.06%	11.73%	9.45%	7.85%
Max Increase	24.52%	18.48%	21.88%	36.29%	20.50%	14.90%	33.09%	18.85%	27.04%	23.85%	13.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	16	18	16	20	10	9	17	16	11	8
Avg Max Decline	0.30%	-4.45%	-3.51%	-2.00%	-0.58%	-2.05%	-1.27%	-2.68%	-3.78%	-2.65%	-1.88%
Max Decline	-2.19%	-7.41%	-13.02%	-10.00%	-3.61%	-6.85%	-4.39%	-8.72%	-8.58%	-8.53%	-6.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	9	11	7	7	4	4	8	21	6	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	26	31	31	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	16	16	17	14	15	15	18	20	21	16	17
Penetrated Low	14	11	9	11	12	11	11	18	16	10	11
Scenario Percentage	88%	69%	53%	79%	80%	73%	61%	90%	76%	62%	65%
Avg Max Decline	9.04%	7.52%	6.58%	7.32%	7.55%	8.67%	8.41%	9.26%	9.96%	11.99%	17.67%
Max Decline	22.98%	18.10%	13.54%	16.89%	17.25%	23.83%	19.28%	17.29%	21.46%	25.88%	41.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	17	19	24	17	18	23	17	19	18	16
Avg Max Increase	-1.54%	-2.89%	-3.96%	-4.09%	-3.23%	-2.11%	-3.64%	-2.45%	-2.89%	-3.16%	-4.69%
Max Increase	-9.75%	-9.55%	-9.17%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-6.10%	-8.54%	-9.60%	-16.53%	-11.06%	-16.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	9	7	14	10	14	14	6	7	8	6
2007 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No					Yes	Yes		Yes
High	212.00	213.00	206.50	215.00	254.00	287.00	287.25	282.50	270.00	302.00	287.00
Low	194.00	200.50	195.00	201.00	216.25	249.50	265.00	254.00	245.50	240.00	251.50
Close/Last	201.00	210.00	201.00	215.00	248.50	273.00	277.00	266.75	259.25	276.50	261.00