MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Oats(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	16	18	20	22	24	29	20	20	19	17
Exceeded High		14	14	13	15	16	22	20	11	12	13	13
Scenario Percentage		70%	88%	72%	75%	73%	92%	69%	55%	60%	68%	76%
Avg Max Increase		15.94%	18.14%	14.50%	12.53%	12.91%	14.48%	12.47%	8.87%	15.58%	15.95%	6.33%
Max Increase		106.02%	87.15%	31.88%	30.70%	40.98%	38.56%	22.99%	28.96%	50.46%	38.94%	14.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	15	18	16	16	17	9	15	9	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.03%	-3.02%	-0.57%	-4.60%	-2.78%	-2.33%	-1.56%	-1.93%	-2.41%	-1.31%	-1.50%
Max Decline		-7.25%	-8.45%	-5.32%	-8.31%	-9.36%	-8.31%	-8.64%	-6.60%	-6.47%	-6.73%	-9.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	6	5	8	8	5	9	3	9	3	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	29	27	25	22	20	16	25	24	25	27
Penetrated Low		17	26	24	17	14	15	9	19	19	18	10
Scenario Percentage		89%	90%	89%	68%	64%	75%	56%	76%	79%	72%	37%
Avg Max Decline		7.62%	10.43%	9.76%	9.69%	8.22%	9.27%	9.29%	8.75%	9.52%	10.24%	5.90%
Max Decline		15.94%	26.25%	24.78%	20.59%	37.94%	37.88%	21.66%	18.50%	22.86%	21.25%	19.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	22	18	21	18	21	12	14	18	15	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.90%	-4.01%	-2.74%	-2.82%	-3.14%	-5.27%	-3.18%	-3.60%	-4.27%	-1.91%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-10.50%	-15.38%	-10.14%	-10.30%	-7.47%	-11.80%	-8.44%	-8.41%	-11.43%	-5.73%	-3.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	6	7	8	14	6	13	11	4	1
2022 Contract Condition										Yes
Action										Yes
High	359.25	380.00	397.00	399.25	464.50	520.25	583.25	707.00	778.00	739.50	715.50	779.50
Low	336.75	346.50	356.00	363.50	373.50	441.00	487.00	562.00	688.75	650.00	600.75	635.25
Close/Last	351.50	378.50	382.00	394.50	446.25	501.50	572.50	704.75	714.00	683.00	695.50	695.75