MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Oats(CBOT) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	15	17	19	21	23	29	19	21	19	17
Exceeded High		13	13	12	14	15	21	19	11	13	12	12
Scenario Percentage		68%	87%	71%	74%	71%	91%	66%	58%	62%	63%	71%
Avg Max Increase		16.74%	17.88%	13.05%	11.23%	11.04%	13.46%	12.58%	8.87%	15.34%	15.75%	5.50%
Max Increase		106.02%	87.15%	23.03%	27.66%	29.72%	38.56%	22.99%	28.96%	50.46%	35.30%	11.11%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	14	17	15	16	17	9	16	7	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.73%	-2.88%	-0.17%	-4.84%	-2.78%	-2.36%	-1.53%	-1.93%	-2.29%	-1.30%	-0.49%
Max Decline		-7.25%	-8.45%	-3.13%	-8.31%	-9.36%	-8.31%	-8.64%	-6.60%	-6.47%	-6.73%	-7.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	5	5	8	8	5	9	3	9	3	2
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		40	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	29	27	26	23	21	16	26	23	25	27
Penetrated Low		17	26	24	18	15	16	9	19	18	18	8
Scenario Percentage		89%	90%	89%	69%	65%	76%	56%	73%	78%	72%	30%
Avg Max Decline		7.62%	10.43%	9.76%	9.54%	8.19%	9.01%	9.29%	8.75%	9.38%	10.12%	6.43%
Max Decline		15.94%	26.25%	24.78%	20.59%	37.94%	37.88%	21.66%	18.50%	22.86%	21.25%	19.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	22	18	21	17	21	12	14	18	15	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.90%	-4.01%	-2.74%	-3.19%	-3.58%	-5.40%	-3.18%	-3.60%	-4.42%	-1.91%	-0.84%
Max Increase		-10.50%	-15.38%	-10.14%	-10.30%	-9.78%	-11.80%	-8.44%	-8.41%	-11.43%	-5.73%	-3.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	6	9	8	14	6	13	11	4	1
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes				Yes		Yes
Action		No			Yes				Yes		Not Yet
High	268.75	259.50	287.00	294.00	288.25	274.50	289.50	307.50	315.00	363.00	370.00	378.00
Low	255.25	254.50	256.25	266.00	263.75	254.75	265.00	282.75	290.00	287.00	340.50	341.25
Close/Last	260.00	255.25	281.25	287.25	271.75	271.75	287.50	295.25	291.50	360.75	349.50	376.50