MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Oats(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		38	43	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	13	16	20	21	23	27	19	20	19	17
Exceeded High		12	11	12	15	14	20	17	12	12	13	13
Scenario Percentage		67%	85%	75%	75%	67%	87%	63%	63%	60%	68%	76%
Avg Max Increase		16.69%	20.32%	13.05%	11.31%	11.05%	12.97%	12.00%	8.40%	16.22%	15.44%	6.15%
Max Increase		106.02%	87.15%	23.03%	27.66%	29.72%	38.56%	22.99%	28.96%	50.46%	38.94%	14.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	16	14	18	15	15	15	9	15	9	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.70%	-2.50%	-0.17%	-4.52%	-2.84%	-2.62%	-1.53%	-1.78%	-2.01%	-1.23%	-1.11%
Max Decline		-7.25%	-8.45%	-3.13%	-8.31%	-9.36%	-8.31%	-8.64%	-6.60%	-6.47%	-6.73%	-9.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	4	5	8	9	6	7	3	8	3	3
2019 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		38	43	43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	30	27	24	23	21	18	26	24	25	27
Penetrated Low		17	26	23	17	15	16	11	19	18	19	10
Scenario Percentage		94%	87%	85%	71%	65%	76%	61%	73%	75%	76%	37%
Avg Max Decline		7.62%	10.43%	9.97%	9.74%	8.19%	9.01%	9.76%	9.81%	9.74%	10.47%	5.93%
Max Decline		15.94%	26.25%	24.78%	20.59%	37.94%	37.88%	21.66%	21.81%	22.86%	21.25%	19.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	22	18	22	17	21	14	15	18	14	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.90%	-4.01%	-2.68%	-3.34%	-3.58%	-5.40%	-3.69%	-3.44%	-4.05%	-2.14%	-1.49%
Max Increase		-10.50%	-15.38%	-10.14%	-10.30%	-9.78%	-11.80%	-8.44%	-8.41%	-11.43%	-6.30%	-3.57%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	6	9	8	14	9	13	10	4	1
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes						Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes						Yes		Not Yet
High	269.75	266.75	264.50	254.00	251.00	281.50	267.00	293.75	317.50	298.25	303.50	294.50
Low	254.75	249.50	253.00	240.00	239.00	251.00	242.00	267.25	274.50	271.25	273.75	250.50
Close/Last	256.75	256.75	254.25	249.25	250.00	257.00	265.50	272.75	292.25	275.25	282.50	252.00