MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Oats(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	26	31	31	32	32	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	14	9	11	14	15	17	17	16	15	12	11
Exceeded High	9	7	8	10	10	15	10	10	8	7	7
Scenario Percentage	64%	78%	73%	71%	67%	88%	59%	62%	53%	58%	64%
Avg Max Increase	19.95%	25.44%	14.00%	10.64%	10.97%	12.73%	13.76%	6.54%	10.00%	12.06%	5.52%
Max Increase	106.02%	87.15%	23.03%	22.90%	29.72%	38.56%	22.99%	13.66%	31.16%	23.85%	14.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	19	16	18	15	16	14	7	12	9	10
Avg Max Decline	-1.30%	-3.45%	0.07%	-4.59%	-1.79%	-2.34%	-1.00%	-1.93%	-1.42%	-1.74%	-0.41%
Max Decline	-7.25%	-8.45%	-3.13%	-8.31%	-6.45%	-8.31%	-3.37%	-6.60%	-4.44%	-6.73%	-3.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline	9	6	6	5	7	6	8	3	6	4	3
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	26	31	31	32	32	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	11	22	20	18	17	15	16	17	17	20	21
Penetrated Low	11	20	16	12	11	11	10	12	11	15	11
Scenario Percentage	100%	91%	80%	67%	65%	73%	62%	71%	65%	75%	52%
Avg Max Decline	8.37%	11.73%	10.85%	8.85%	6.55%	7.02%	8.57%	8.87%	8.24%	9.66%	16.98%
Max Decline	15.94%	26.25%	24.78%	20.59%	14.57%	17.97%	16.67%	21.81%	16.79%	21.25%	42.09%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	22	18	22	18	23	15	18	21	15	16
Avg Max Increase	-3.34%	-3.51%	-2.45%	-3.61%	-3.90%	-5.42%	-3.46%	-3.15%	-4.17%	-2.34%	-3.00%
Max Increase	-7.84%	-15.38%	-10.14%	-10.30%	-9.78%	-11.80%	-8.44%	-7.22%	-8.22%	-6.30%	-10.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase	15	9	6	9	9	15	10	16	14	4	2
2007 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes	Yes
Action					No					Yes	Yes
High	183.00	202.50	209.50	211.00	204.00	217.00	253.00	289.75	280.75	279.50	261.75
Low	169.00	183.00	192.00	199.00	189.75	196.00	213.00	244.50	255.50	246.00	237.00
Close/Last	183.00	193.00	199.00	205.00	198.00	213.00	245.00	269.00	271.00	257.25	253.00