MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S & P 100(OEX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		21	18	21	18	20	18	14	21	11	19	23
Exceeded High		17	15	16	17	18	13	12	16	10	17	18
Scenario Percentage		81%	83%	76%	94%	90%	72%	86%	76%	91%	89%	78%
Avg Max Increase		393.78%	5.01%	5.87%	4.97%	6.35%	12.37%	4.13%	13.28%	10.16%	14.03%	7.20%
Max Increase		5621.63%	10.82%	13.01%	12.10%	37.88%	63.49%	7.11%	146.50%	33.86%	131.91%	71.53%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	18	18	20	18	15	14	20	19	16
Avg Max Decline		-10.15%	-1.21%	-1.73%	-7.69%	-3.74%	-2.86%	-1.53%	-4.25%	-1.71%	-2.34%	-0.98%
Max Decline		-90.81%	-4.03%	-5.15%	-99.66%	-40.09%	-13.45%	-4.32%	-47.49%	-7.74%	-16.41%	-5.32%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	10	11	12	9	8	9	8	9	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes			Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		11	15	12	14	13	15	19	12	22	14	10
Penetrated Low		9	11	8	7	8	10	14	10	15	6	4
Scenario Percentage		82%	73%	67%	50%	62%	67%	74%	83%	68%	43%	40%
Avg Max Decline		7.80%	14.06%	15.03%	17.54%	7.18%	15.55%	20.05%	6.58%	19.22%	21.51%	26.23%
Max Decline		38.13%	99.39%	99.63%	96.90%	27.26%	86.90%	89.01%	16.87%	91.59%	98.63%	96.88%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	19	17	18	15	17	18	19	17	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-4.64%	-2.01%	-3.30%	-14.33%	-1.56%	-8.57%	-14.97%	-3.50%	-14.07%	-3.20%	-25.72%
Max Increase		-30.60%	-5.91%	-10.31%	-90.59%	-3.67%	-73.48%	-119.37%	-9.65%	-168.31%	-9.63%	-100.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	11	7	6	11	8	13	8	2	5
2008 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	56.05	651.08	647.93	632.94	650.21	655.10	639.23	596.38	608.81	601.50	548.43	482.76
Low	16.56	1.94	609.46	583.64	610.45	627.50	577.27	549.59	576.86	515.52	397.34	361.32
Close/Last	30.29	643.06	613.62	613.71	641.00	639.15	581.09	583.91	590.83	543.49	464.19	432.89