MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		13	13	13	18	18	19	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Higher		7	8	7	14	10	11	17	14	14	16	19
Exceeded High		7	8	7	13	10	10	13	13	13	15	16
Scenario Percentage		100%	100%	100%	93%	100%	91%	76%	93%	93%	94%	84%
Avg Max Increase		6.71%	5.66%	6.52%	7.23%	7.54%	9.11%	6.75%	6.63%	10.58%	9.94%	4.04%
Max Increase		12.73%	12.94%	15.87%	14.75%	15.63%	19.87%	14.48%	18.14%	29.75%	26.95%	12.30%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	20	18	17	23	23	15	20	21	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.10%	-1.74%	-0.54%	-2.27%	-3.24%	-1.40%	-2.15%	-2.78%	-3.96%	-1.31%	-1.13%
Max Decline		-9.27%	-5.96%	-2.58%	-7.12%	-7.74%	-5.68%	-6.40%	-9.58%	-21.51%	-4.05%	-3.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	17	6	12	21	8	13	15	7	4	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		13	13	13	18	18	19	25	25	25	25	25
Closed Lower		6	5	6	4	8	8	8	11	11	9	6
Penetrated Low		5	3	3	3	6	5	6	5	6	6
Scenario Percentage		83%	60%	50%	75%	75%	63%	75%	45%	55%	67%	0%
Avg Max Decline		6.58%	11.73%	3.37%	11.36%	6.21%	6.84%	12.60%	13.57%	17.19%	11.53%
Max Decline		11.29%	22.04%	4.86%	20.68%	12.64%	15.18%	35.81%	26.13%	36.57%	26.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline		8	14	7	17	10	10	15	15	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-0.66%	-0.50%	-2.13%	-2.05%	-2.96%	-4.20%	-8.03%	-1.53%	-2.49%
Max Increase		-8.21%	-4.92%	-2.13%	-4.63%	-8.52%	-6.68%	-9.24%	-24.96%	-6.46%	-3.89%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	6	2	12	7	10	6	19	3	5
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No						No	Yes
High	8866.25	9324.25	9793.25	8918.50	9110.25	9565.00	10283.75	11045.00	12149.75	12448.75	12249.00	12408.75
Low	8334.25	8767.50	8216.25	6626.75	7386.50	8555.00	9390.50	10067.00	10830.25	10656.50	10944.50	10942.25
Close/Last	8819.50	9063.00	8500.00	7766.50	8961.50	9552.00	10135.75	10874.25	12099.50	11407.25	11046.25	12277.00