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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ 100 Index as of Jun 30, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Higher   24 27 20 27 20 26 23 26 20 26 23
Exceeded High   22 25 18 21 19 22 20 25 18 21 18
Scenario Percentage   92% 93% 90% 78% 95% 85% 87% 96% 90% 81% 78%
Avg Max Increase   10.53% 9.28% 9.51% 16.53% 9.78% 9.62% 8.99% 10.27% 9.88% 6.71% 5.28%
Max Increase   42.20% 36.61% 26.06% 176.29% 39.58% 34.91% 16.40% 100.08% 30.56% 14.06% 21.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 18 19 22 21 22 16 17 22 17 19
Avg Max Decline   -6.55% -2.37% -2.35% -1.49% -2.66% -5.21% -2.68% -2.55% -1.48% -2.30% -3.47%
Max Decline   -99.12% -11.30% -10.60% -12.33% -7.36% -68.47% -8.23% -7.61% -5.58% -7.48% -36.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 13 8 6 8 9 9 14 6 12 5
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Lower   14 12 19 12 19 13 16 13 19 13 16
Penetrated Low   10 6 11 9 16 7 10 9 12 10 7
Scenario Percentage   71% 50% 58% 75% 84% 54% 63% 69% 63% 77% 44%
Avg Max Decline   19.66% 12.32% 9.69% 7.83% 8.96% 7.05% 10.57% 9.60% 8.36% 18.08% 10.21%
Max Decline   99.76% 18.96% 19.70% 14.21% 29.33% 14.29% 23.28% 28.08% 18.55% 64.46% 25.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 13 15 13 16 14 20 13 12 13 18
Avg Max Increase   -3.11% -4.64% -4.66% -2.30% -3.71% -1.59% -3.69% -2.35% -2.10% -3.28% -2.70%
Max Increase   -13.49% -19.32% -18.36% -9.02% -15.77% -2.98% -6.74% -9.11% -6.76% -9.38% -6.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 6 6 4 7 5 17 5 9 7 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes Yes          
Action   No       Yes Yes          
High 3889.25 4216.00 4794.75 5749.00 5561.25 5838.50 4689.75 3323.25 5227.50 6337.00    
Low 2016.75 3238.25 3514.50 4531.75 4154.25 4031.00 2416.50 171.50 3222.00 4822.25    
Close/Last 3676.50 3506.25 4546.25 4628.00 5094.00 4500.25 2894.25 3187.00 4956.75 6295.00    

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