MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ 100 Index as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		20	25	19	24	22	24	18	25	22	20	24
Exceeded High		18	19	18	20	19	23	16	21	20	19	22
Scenario Percentage		90%	76%	95%	83%	86%	96%	89%	84%	91%	95%	92%
Avg Max Increase		9.51%	8.52%	8.12%	8.33%	8.65%	6.30%	8.89%	6.72%	6.07%	9.25%	6.67%
Max Increase		26.06%	15.29%	15.72%	17.94%	16.40%	22.95%	19.79%	14.06%	19.67%	30.90%	20.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	21	21	21	16	17	22	17	19	20	21
Avg Max Decline		-2.35%	-1.74%	-2.40%	-2.13%	-2.70%	-2.47%	-1.37%	-2.30%	-3.14%	-4.03%	-6.00%
Max Decline		-10.60%	-12.33%	-7.29%	-9.12%	-8.23%	-7.61%	-5.58%	-7.48%	-9.34%	-20.96%	-99.12%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	5	7	7	9	15	6	12	15	10	4
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		17	12	18	13	15	13	19	12	15	17	13
Penetrated Low		11	9	15	7	10	9	12	9	8	11	8
Scenario Percentage		65%	75%	83%	54%	67%	69%	63%	75%	53%	65%	62%
Avg Max Decline		9.69%	7.83%	9.36%	7.05%	10.57%	9.60%	8.36%	12.98%	12.42%	23.01%	9.02%
Max Decline		19.70%	14.21%	29.33%	14.29%	23.28%	28.08%	18.55%	35.33%	25.91%	99.05%	23.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	13	16	14	20	13	12	15	13	15	14
Avg Max Increase		-4.66%	-2.30%	-3.72%	-1.59%	-3.69%	-2.35%	-2.10%	-2.98%	-5.61%	-3.41%	-1.90%
Max Increase		-18.36%	-9.02%	-15.77%	-2.98%	-6.74%	-9.11%	-6.76%	-9.38%	-23.92%	-11.16%	-3.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	4	7	5	17	5	9	7	14	7	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes						Yes	Not Yet
High	12030.00	12161.25	12248.00	12880.75	13188.75	13247.25	14518.50	15284.50	15932.00	15748.25	15618.00
Low	10632.25	10671.00	10696.25	11900.75	11695.25	12724.50	12938.25	14223.75	14924.50	14557.75	14432.50
Close/Last	12030.00	10939.75	12101.75	12042.00	13181.25	13245.75	14254.00	15179.00	15757.00	15501.00	14715.00