MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Natural Gas(NYM) as of Dec 07, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		13	9	15	15	19	21	21	17	13	13	17
Exceeded High		10	7	11	14	14	21	20	12	9	12	12
Scenario Percentage		77%	78%	73%	93%	74%	100%	95%	71%	69%	92%	71%
Avg Max Increase		6.83%	10.58%	12.93%	14.62%	16.14%	16.31%	13.99%	16.09%	18.15%	29.96%	16.84%
Max Increase		15.70%	26.17%	40.28%	29.61%	45.23%	62.44%	44.79%	37.75%	73.17%	68.95%	33.68%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	16	20	23	17	17	15	18	18	18	21
Avg Max Decline		-2.58%	-2.05%	-2.27%	-3.49%	-2.10%	-3.39%	-4.70%	-3.81%	-5.70%	-5.03%	-3.32%
Max Decline		-9.46%	-5.13%	-5.67%	-15.07%	-6.85%	-7.82%	-11.85%	-12.50%	-17.71%	-12.12%	-7.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	13	9	8	7	10	10	8	8	6	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		17	21	17	17	13	11	11	16	20	20	16
Penetrated Low		13	18	13	13	7	10	9	15	16	17	12
Scenario Percentage		76%	86%	76%	76%	54%	91%	82%	94%	80%	85%	75%
Avg Max Decline		11.75%	11.48%	9.41%	11.93%	10.88%	9.36%	13.82%	15.18%	15.24%	15.00%	12.77%
Max Decline		21.74%	28.99%	28.37%	24.63%	21.22%	25.09%	34.29%	26.66%	30.69%	38.37%	33.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	12	15	18	17	22	21	23	22	12	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.93%	-1.97%	-2.51%	-4.32%	-3.03%	-4.60%	-4.63%	-5.75%	-6.19%	-6.16%	-4.87%
Max Increase		-6.07%	-6.24%	-9.20%	-10.64%	-8.46%	-11.44%	-10.74%	-14.11%	-31.42%	-14.39%	-14.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	6	9	6	11	10	11	19	6	6
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action			Yes	No		No				No
High	4.144	4.239	4.375	4.054	4.863	5.121	5.927	8.238	9.324	9.568	9.382	9.987
Low	3.467	3.794	3.851	3.557	3.650	4.030	4.478	5.613	6.487	5.350	5.353	7.536
Close/Last	3.913	4.050	4.012	3.676	4.745	4.528	5.740	7.299	8.073	5.409	8.208	9.127