MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Natural Gas(NYM) as of Dec 07, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	33
Closed Higher		16	13	9	13	16	18	21	22	15	13	13
Exceeded High		12	10	7	11	15	15	21	21	11	9	12
Scenario Percentage		75%	77%	78%	85%	94%	83%	100%	95%	73%	69%	92%
Avg Max Increase		6.45%	6.84%	10.29%	12.98%	14.90%	16.14%	17.03%	15.37%	17.38%	15.27%	16.49%
Max Increase		14.51%	15.76%	25.70%	40.58%	29.66%	48.89%	63.48%	46.20%	38.74%	44.05%	44.41%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	13	20	18	23	17	17	15	20	17	16
Avg Max Decline		-3.81%	-2.78%	-2.05%	-1.38%	-3.35%	-2.52%	-3.67%	-4.84%	-4.32%	-6.15%	-4.69%
Max Decline		-12.68%	-9.97%	-5.31%	-5.36%	-15.19%	-6.78%	-7.94%	-12.27%	-11.97%	-18.51%	-11.41%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	5	14	7	11	8	10	10	9	8	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	33	33	33
Closed Lower		16	19	23	19	14	14	11	10	18	20	20
Penetrated Low		12	15	20	15	11	9	10	8	16	17	15
Scenario Percentage		75%	79%	87%	79%	79%	64%	91%	80%	89%	85%	75%
Avg Max Decline		8.50%	11.63%	11.87%	9.17%	12.74%	9.35%	9.64%	15.84%	15.91%	14.25%	12.20%
Max Decline		17.97%	22.07%	29.50%	28.61%	25.24%	22.92%	25.63%	35.19%	27.88%	32.40%	26.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	17	14	15	21	16	22	21	23	16	17
Avg Max Increase		-3.84%	-1.77%	-1.89%	-2.35%	-4.61%	-4.82%	-4.55%	-3.96%	-6.03%	-4.59%	-4.94%
Max Increase		-10.43%	-5.87%	-6.49%	-10.41%	-10.77%	-23.15%	-11.31%	-10.27%	-14.77%	-13.49%	-16.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	7	7	6	11	10	11	10	12	16	4
2022 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action				Yes	No		No				Yes
High	3.474	4.115	4.210	4.338	4.010	4.843	5.097	5.917	8.228	9.369	9.598	9.419
Low	3.202	3.435	3.761	3.821	3.515	3.620	4.003	4.457	5.608	6.487	5.327	5.324
Close/Last	3.427	3.884	4.018	3.973	3.645	4.720	4.503	5.731	7.299	8.097	5.392	8.229