MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	32	32	32
Closed Higher		15	12	9	13	15	18	20	21	14	13	12
Exceeded High		11	9	7	11	14	15	20	20	10	9	11
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	78%	85%	93%	83%	100%	95%	71%	69%	92%
Avg Max Increase		5.97%	6.71%	10.29%	12.98%	14.15%	16.14%	14.71%	14.57%	17.26%	14.72%	15.38%
Max Increase		14.51%	15.76%	25.70%	40.58%	29.66%	48.89%	51.66%	46.20%	38.74%	44.05%	42.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	11	20	18	23	17	16	15	21	17	16
Avg Max Decline		-3.87%	-2.54%	-2.05%	-1.38%	-2.51%	-2.52%	-3.74%	-4.52%	-4.76%	-6.15%	-4.35%
Max Decline		-12.68%	-9.97%	-5.31%	-5.36%	-5.14%	-6.78%	-7.94%	-12.27%	-11.97%	-18.51%	-11.41%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	5	14	7	11	8	10	10	10	8	5
2021 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	32	32	32
Closed Lower		16	19	22	18	14	13	11	10	18	19	20
Penetrated Low		12	15	19	15	11	9	10	8	16	16	15
Scenario Percentage		75%	79%	86%	83%	79%	69%	91%	80%	89%	84%	75%
Avg Max Decline		8.50%	11.63%	11.88%	9.17%	12.74%	9.35%	9.64%	15.84%	15.91%	14.12%	11.27%
Max Decline		17.97%	22.07%	29.50%	28.61%	25.24%	22.92%	25.63%	35.19%	27.88%	31.54%	25.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	17	14	15	21	16	22	21	23	16	16
Avg Max Increase		-3.84%	-1.77%	-1.94%	-2.35%	-4.61%	-4.82%	-4.55%	-3.96%	-6.03%	-4.28%	-4.94%
Max Increase		-10.43%	-5.87%	-6.49%	-10.41%	-10.77%	-23.15%	-11.31%	-10.27%	-14.77%	-13.49%	-16.17%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	7	7	6	11	10	11	10	12	17	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No			No
High	2.835	2.883	3.064	3.083	2.870	2.924	3.115	3.010	3.033	3.192	3.784	4.165
Low	2.627	2.776	2.721	2.672	2.516	2.682	2.850	2.594	2.639	2.922	3.025	3.495
Close/Last	2.817	2.803	3.046	2.806	2.712	2.766	2.926	2.740	2.972	3.002	3.624	3.914