MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for September Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2013 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
| Tested Years | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | |
| Closed Higher | 12 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 10 | |
| Exceeded High | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 9 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 67% | 57% | 80% | 89% | 100% | 92% | 100% | 93% | 67% | 70% | 90% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 6.32% | 6.92% | 10.79% | 15.00% | 15.37% | 17.54% | 15.69% | 16.66% | 16.42% | 16.23% | 13.26% | |
| Max Increase | 14.51% | 12.72% | 25.70% | 40.58% | 29.66% | 48.89% | 51.66% | 46.20% | 29.47% | 44.05% | 28.45% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 14 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -4.56% | -1.09% | -1.73% | -0.57% | -2.81% | -2.42% | -3.90% | -4.60% | -5.72% | -7.23% | -5.13% | |
| Max Decline | -12.68% | -3.00% | -2.90% | -3.47% | -4.55% | -6.78% | -7.94% | -12.27% | -11.97% | -18.51% | -11.41% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 4 | |
| 2012 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | ||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
