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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jul 19, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 35
Closed Higher   17 17 14 10 12 17 19 21 21 16 14
Exceeded High   14 13 11 8 9 15 15 21 20 12 6
Scenario Percentage   82% 76% 79% 80% 75% 88% 79% 100% 95% 75% 43%
Avg Max Increase   8.77% 7.11% 6.52% 9.67% 14.61% 15.22% 16.40% 17.37% 15.59% 18.11% 10.26%
Max Increase   23.34% 15.36% 15.93% 26.45% 41.51% 29.66% 48.98% 63.66% 47.41% 39.24% 18.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 18 13 20 19 23 16 16 14 19 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.49% -3.58% -2.62% -3.75% -1.80% -3.55% -2.71% -3.85% -5.31% -7.14% -3.71%
Max Decline   -6.52% -13.01% -9.95% -13.33% -5.68% -15.21% -6.66% -8.17% -12.70% -34.57% -12.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 10 4 16 7 10 8 11 10 12 5
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes      
Action     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes No      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 35
Closed Lower   17 17 20 24 22 17 15 13 13 19 21
Penetrated Low   13 15 16 21 16 14 10 12 10 17 16
Scenario Percentage   76% 88% 80% 88% 73% 82% 67% 92% 77% 89% 76%
Avg Max Decline   8.37% 8.11% 12.00% 12.31% 11.81% 13.23% 11.43% 10.21% 15.08% 14.80% 10.67%
Max Decline   21.05% 17.97% 22.09% 29.97% 34.88% 25.57% 24.82% 27.18% 36.75% 28.58% 23.34%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 22 20 15 15 19 17 19 18 17 16
Avg Max Increase   -1.65% -4.40% -2.38% -1.94% -2.94% -4.80% -5.81% -4.41% -5.06% -6.14% -2.60%
Max Increase   -6.55% -10.48% -11.90% -7.11% -13.35% -11.28% -21.80% -11.46% -10.17% -14.97% -11.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 14 8 8 5 13 10 11 11 8 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes           Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes   Yes           No Yes Yes
High 3.470 3.368 3.378 3.405 3.448 3.753 4.134 4.619 5.260 4.572 4.193 4.230
Low 3.170 3.121 3.115 3.077 2.974 3.189 3.460 3.693 4.200 3.394 3.514 3.403
Close/Last 3.211 3.178 3.359 3.081 3.365 3.560 3.643 4.256 4.545 3.732 3.523 3.456

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