MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Natural Gas(NYM) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	34	34
Closed Higher		17	17	13	10	12	17	18	21	21	15	14
Exceeded High		14	13	10	8	9	15	14	21	20	11	6
Scenario Percentage		82%	76%	77%	80%	75%	88%	78%	100%	95%	73%	43%
Avg Max Increase		8.77%	7.11%	6.97%	9.67%	14.61%	15.22%	17.30%	17.37%	15.59%	17.66%	9.91%
Max Increase		23.34%	15.36%	15.93%	26.45%	41.51%	29.66%	48.98%	63.66%	47.41%	39.24%	18.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	14	20	19	23	17	16	14	20	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.49%	-3.58%	-2.66%	-3.75%	-1.80%	-3.55%	-2.64%	-3.85%	-5.31%	-7.77%	-3.71%
Max Decline		-6.52%	-13.01%	-9.95%	-13.33%	-5.68%	-15.21%	-6.66%	-8.17%	-12.70%	-34.57%	-12.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	10	4	16	7	10	9	11	10	13	5
2023 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes							Yes
Action		Yes			Yes							Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	34	34
Closed Lower		16	16	20	23	21	16	15	12	12	19	20
Penetrated Low		12	14	16	20	15	13	10	11	10	17	15
Scenario Percentage		75%	88%	80%	87%	71%	81%	67%	92%	83%	89%	75%
Avg Max Decline		8.78%	7.93%	12.00%	12.09%	11.39%	13.09%	11.43%	10.83%	15.08%	14.78%	9.74%
Max Decline		21.05%	17.97%	22.09%	29.97%	34.88%	25.57%	24.82%	27.18%	36.75%	28.58%	16.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	20	15	15	19	17	19	18	16	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.69%	-4.13%	-2.38%	-1.99%	-2.25%	-5.04%	-5.81%	-4.40%	-5.06%	-6.14%	-2.77%
Max Increase		-6.55%	-10.48%	-11.90%	-7.11%	-11.65%	-11.28%	-21.80%	-11.46%	-10.17%	-14.97%	-11.11%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	13	8	8	5	14	10	11	11	8	4
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	5.363	5.920	5.951	5.228	5.452	5.464	4.109	3.381	3.536	2.806	2.885	2.936
Low	4.214	4.707	4.815	4.535	4.672	4.114	3.155	2.711	2.653	2.450	2.317	2.244
Close/Last	4.897	5.858	4.924	4.883	5.343	4.163	3.288	3.259	2.783	2.645	2.358	2.798