MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Natural Gas(NYM) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	34
Closed Higher		16	17	15	12	10	13	17	17	21	21	15
Exceeded High		13	14	12	10	8	10	15	12	21	20	11
Scenario Percentage		81%	82%	80%	83%	80%	77%	88%	71%	100%	95%	73%
Avg Max Increase		14.46%	8.54%	7.37%	7.13%	10.30%	15.67%	15.86%	19.89%	17.55%	14.82%	11.90%
Max Increase		40.16%	23.32%	15.07%	16.38%	26.86%	45.30%	32.40%	51.42%	64.12%	49.30%	21.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	18	14	19	19	24	18	16	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.81%	-2.49%	-3.62%	-2.71%	-4.71%	-1.87%	-3.77%	-2.76%	-4.51%	-5.63%	-3.10%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-6.52%	-12.87%	-10.14%	-13.36%	-5.67%	-15.31%	-7.01%	-8.65%	-14.73%	-12.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	12	12	5	18	7	8	9	11	11	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	34
Closed Lower		16	16	16	20	23	20	16	15	12	12	19
Penetrated Low		13	13	14	15	19	15	13	9	11	9	14
Scenario Percentage		81%	81%	88%	75%	83%	75%	81%	60%	92%	75%	74%
Avg Max Decline		7.68%	8.30%	8.21%	12.81%	13.05%	11.93%	13.92%	13.60%	11.61%	15.01%	10.80%
Max Decline		16.71%	21.80%	18.48%	22.56%	30.46%	35.94%	26.72%	25.72%	28.35%	34.31%	22.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	22	19	16	16	23	19	18	15	17
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-1.33%	-5.36%	-2.55%	-2.25%	-2.60%	-5.93%	-6.45%	-3.87%	-4.98%	-3.31%
Max Increase		-5.10%	-3.76%	-19.21%	-12.60%	-7.26%	-12.14%	-11.88%	-20.94%	-11.42%	-10.19%	-13.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	12	15	7	8	5	13	11	7	10	4
2023 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	6.045	5.369	5.911	5.938	5.223	5.446	5.478	4.120	3.337	3.496	2.746	2.816
Low	4.342	4.186	4.696	4.804	4.516	4.663	4.113	3.117	2.663	2.600	2.386	2.233
Close/Last	4.386	4.887	5.846	4.914	4.865	5.335	4.157	3.241	3.212	2.732	2.578	2.266