MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	32
Closed Higher		14	15	14	11	9	13	16	17	20	20	14
Exceeded High		11	12	11	9	7	10	14	12	20	19	10
Scenario Percentage		79%	80%	79%	82%	78%	77%	88%	71%	100%	95%	71%
Avg Max Increase		12.66%	7.89%	6.98%	7.03%	11.39%	15.67%	15.17%	19.89%	15.23%	13.95%	11.23%
Max Increase		40.16%	22.45%	15.07%	16.38%	26.86%	45.30%	32.40%	51.42%	53.57%	49.30%	21.64%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	19	18	12	20	19	23	18	16	14	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.84%	-2.37%	-3.68%	-2.48%	-3.48%	-1.87%	-2.95%	-2.76%	-4.63%	-5.33%	-3.41%
Max Decline		-10.94%	-4.34%	-12.87%	-10.14%	-11.21%	-5.67%	-6.30%	-7.01%	-8.65%	-14.73%	-12.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	13	12	5	20	7	8	9	11	11	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	32
Closed Lower		16	16	15	19	22	18	15	13	11	11	18
Penetrated Low		13	13	13	14	18	14	12	8	10	8	13
Scenario Percentage		81%	81%	87%	74%	82%	78%	80%	62%	91%	73%	72%
Avg Max Decline		7.68%	8.30%	8.22%	12.62%	13.13%	10.21%	13.44%	12.08%	10.95%	14.74%	11.19%
Max Decline		16.71%	21.80%	18.48%	22.56%	30.46%	28.87%	26.72%	25.30%	28.35%	34.31%	22.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	22	19	17	16	22	19	19	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-1.33%	-5.29%	-1.83%	-2.31%	-2.85%	-5.77%	-6.16%	-4.20%	-4.45%	-3.51%
Max Increase		-5.10%	-3.76%	-19.21%	-5.86%	-7.26%	-12.14%	-11.88%	-20.94%	-11.42%	-10.19%	-13.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	12	15	5	9	6	12	12	6	9	4
2021 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	No			No
High	2.596	2.669	2.839	2.889	3.067	3.085	2.865	2.927	3.128	3.007	3.038	3.204
Low	2.486	2.492	2.631	2.779	2.725	2.650	2.472	2.665	2.843	2.585	2.616	2.903
Close/Last	2.528	2.622	2.825	2.809	3.047	2.791	2.685	2.752	2.919	2.732	2.978	2.986