MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for June Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jul 07, 2025 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Tested Years | 34 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 15 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 18 | |
| Exceeded High | 9 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 20 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 60% | 88% | 82% | 81% | 83% | 82% | 79% | 88% | 71% | 95% | 72% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 8.03% | 13.27% | 8.53% | 7.17% | 7.63% | 12.79% | 18.49% | 19.11% | 22.28% | 17.53% | 15.44% | |
| Max Increase | 27.75% | 40.81% | 23.43% | 14.62% | 16.87% | 26.34% | 49.02% | 50.18% | 54.16% | 64.90% | 43.27% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 18 | 15 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.11% | -2.80% | -2.50% | -4.39% | -3.01% | -4.30% | -1.94% | -3.40% | -3.02% | -4.58% | -3.64% | |
| Max Decline | -4.05% | -10.98% | -6.40% | -13.62% | -10.47% | -13.89% | -5.83% | -15.77% | -8.24% | -9.02% | -11.24% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 14 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 4 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
