MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		13	15	15	14	10	9	13	15	16	19	17
Exceeded High		7	13	12	11	8	7	10	13	11	19	12
Scenario Percentage		54%	87%	80%	79%	80%	78%	77%	87%	69%	100%	71%
Avg Max Increase		7.44%	11.53%	7.87%	7.14%	8.24%	12.39%	16.90%	16.23%	22.00%	14.97%	14.14%
Max Increase		27.75%	40.81%	22.49%	14.62%	16.87%	26.34%	49.02%	34.72%	54.16%	52.28%	43.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	20	18	18	14	17	18	21	17	17	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.84%	-2.83%	-2.39%	-3.67%	-2.85%	-2.62%	-1.82%	-2.86%	-3.14%	-4.71%	-3.01%
Max Decline		-3.38%	-10.98%	-4.34%	-13.06%	-10.47%	-10.51%	-5.83%	-6.29%	-8.24%	-9.02%	-8.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	12	14	12	5	19	7	8	7	9	4
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		17	16	16	17	21	22	18	16	15	12	14
Penetrated Low		13	12	12	15	17	18	15	14	11	11	9
Scenario Percentage		76%	75%	75%	88%	81%	82%	83%	88%	73%	92%	64%
Avg Max Decline		7.56%	8.24%	9.07%	8.36%	12.40%	13.92%	10.51%	13.05%	11.02%	9.66%	7.82%
Max Decline		14.02%	17.20%	22.34%	18.69%	23.19%	31.08%	29.74%	28.30%	26.89%	22.12%	15.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	18	18	21	18	17	13	18	18	17	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.57%	-1.73%	-1.64%	-4.98%	-1.87%	-2.35%	-3.07%	-5.41%	-4.89%	-6.24%	-2.86%
Max Increase		-12.48%	-5.35%	-7.18%	-19.06%	-6.16%	-8.25%	-15.44%	-12.38%	-20.14%	-23.12%	-8.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	3	9	14	5	7	7	10	15	9	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes	No			Not Yet
High	2.647	2.560	2.625	2.809	2.856	3.028	3.043	2.804	2.868	3.084	2.958	2.988
Low	2.502	2.438	2.441	2.580	2.741	2.684	2.591	2.411	2.593	2.789	2.521	2.534
Close/Last	2.526	2.482	2.572	2.794	2.774	3.006	2.736	2.611	2.683	2.862	2.667	2.931