MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Natural Gas(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		13	14	14	13	8	9	12	14	15	19	15
Exceeded High		7	12	11	10	6	7	10	12	11	19	10
Scenario Percentage		54%	86%	79%	77%	75%	78%	83%	86%	73%	100%	67%
Avg Max Increase		7.44%	11.57%	7.83%	7.24%	10.19%	12.39%	16.90%	16.34%	22.00%	15.11%	15.26%
Max Increase		27.75%	40.81%	22.49%	14.62%	16.87%	26.34%	49.02%	34.72%	54.16%	52.28%	43.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	21	17	19	17	17	18	21	17	18	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.84%	-3.09%	-2.25%	-3.84%	-3.49%	-2.62%	-1.82%	-3.47%	-3.14%	-4.89%	-3.04%
Max Decline		-3.38%	-10.98%	-4.34%	-13.06%	-10.47%	-10.51%	-5.83%	-6.29%	-8.24%	-9.02%	-8.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	13	12	11	6	19	7	9	7	10	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		15	15	15	16	21	20	17	15	14	10	14
Penetrated Low		12	11	12	14	17	16	15	13	10	10	9
Scenario Percentage		80%	73%	80%	88%	81%	80%	88%	87%	71%	100%	64%
Avg Max Decline		7.57%	8.46%	9.07%	8.49%	12.40%	14.33%	10.51%	12.80%	11.28%	9.70%	7.82%
Max Decline		14.02%	17.20%	22.34%	18.69%	23.19%	31.08%	29.74%	28.30%	26.89%	22.12%	15.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	17	18	22	18	16	13	18	19	17	16
Avg Max Increase		-2.52%	-1.78%	-1.64%	-4.65%	-1.87%	-2.24%	-3.07%	-5.47%	-3.66%	-4.55%	-2.86%
Max Increase		-12.48%	-5.35%	-7.18%	-19.06%	-6.16%	-8.25%	-15.44%	-12.38%	-20.14%	-11.59%	-8.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	3	9	13	5	6	7	8	16	6	4
2019 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		No			Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High	2.659	2.694	2.675	2.709	2.661	2.747	2.827	2.935	2.917	2.884	2.941	2.774
Low	2.528	2.609	2.576	2.574	2.578	2.636	2.634	2.709	2.623	2.647	2.708	2.477
Close/Last	2.640	2.664	2.619	2.658	2.643	2.684	2.780	2.717	2.818	2.863	2.713	2.575