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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jul 07, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   33 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Closed Higher   16 16 17 17 17 14 12 13 16 19 22
Exceeded High   13 11 16 13 14 10 10 11 14 14 19
Scenario Percentage   81% 69% 94% 76% 82% 71% 83% 85% 88% 74% 86%
Avg Max Increase   9.30% 8.19% 12.86% 8.98% 7.08% 8.57% 15.92% 20.75% 20.84% 20.18% 11.80%
Max Increase   23.36% 27.44% 41.31% 23.54% 14.89% 22.06% 31.67% 62.43% 55.98% 54.87% 42.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 16 19 18 18 14 18 18 20 13 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.21% -2.48% -2.74% -2.47% -4.67% -3.16% -3.57% -2.23% -3.78% -3.47% -3.99%
Max Decline   -4.89% -7.32% -11.20% -6.92% -15.22% -10.81% -14.48% -6.21% -16.31% -8.72% -8.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 13 12 8 15 4 8 5 8 7 5
2025 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   33 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Closed Lower   17 19 18 18 17 21 23 22 19 16 13
Penetrated Low   13 15 13 14 15 17 20 17 15 11 12
Scenario Percentage   76% 79% 72% 78% 88% 81% 87% 77% 79% 69% 92%
Avg Max Decline   5.90% 7.70% 8.45% 8.69% 9.28% 13.24% 14.84% 15.86% 16.58% 13.61% 8.07%
Max Decline   12.45% 14.66% 17.78% 22.61% 19.01% 23.62% 31.56% 42.43% 29.94% 27.78% 16.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 17 19 19 23 19 19 15 21 13 14
Avg Max Increase   -3.81% -2.49% -2.07% -2.49% -5.90% -2.70% -2.61% -3.82% -6.39% -5.93% -4.22%
Max Increase   -13.25% -12.65% -5.64% -9.77% -20.13% -12.82% -9.12% -16.98% -13.73% -18.01% -11.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 12 3 10 16 8 7 6 9 8 3
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
High 3.192 3.277 3.334 3.046 3.032 3.083 3.100 3.144 3.373 3.789 4.378 4.946
Low 3.008 2.941 3.016 2.803 2.759 2.775 2.711 2.595 2.762 3.035 3.262 3.732
Close/Last 3.092 3.048 3.047 2.851 2.824 3.061 2.717 3.005 3.157 3.171 3.896 4.119

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