MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		15	15	16	16	16	13	10	12	15	17	21
Exceeded High		12	10	15	12	13	9	8	10	13	12	19
Scenario Percentage		80%	67%	94%	75%	81%	69%	80%	83%	87%	71%	90%
Avg Max Increase		8.31%	8.67%	12.26%	9.62%	7.42%	9.25%	16.26%	18.96%	18.13%	20.45%	11.69%
Max Increase		23.36%	27.44%	41.31%	23.54%	14.89%	22.06%	31.67%	62.43%	43.11%	54.87%	42.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	16	20	20	18	15	19	18	21	14	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.33%	-2.32%	-2.66%	-2.09%	-3.86%	-3.22%	-1.64%	-2.07%	-4.29%	-3.65%	-3.99%
Max Decline		-4.89%	-7.32%	-11.20%	-5.03%	-13.36%	-10.81%	-4.42%	-6.21%	-16.31%	-8.72%	-8.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	11	12	8	14	5	8	5	8	8	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		15	17	16	16	15	19	22	20	17	15	11
Penetrated Low		11	13	11	12	13	15	19	15	13	10	10
Scenario Percentage		73%	76%	69%	75%	87%	79%	86%	75%	76%	67%	91%
Avg Max Decline		6.03%	7.81%	9.14%	9.36%	8.99%	13.51%	14.63%	13.38%	15.23%	11.95%	6.47%
Max Decline		12.45%	14.66%	17.78%	22.61%	19.01%	23.62%	31.56%	34.01%	29.94%	27.60%	13.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	19	19	18	22	19	19	15	20	12	12
Avg Max Increase		-3.67%	-2.67%	-1.90%	-1.96%	-5.49%	-2.11%	-2.53%	-3.28%	-6.34%	-6.04%	-3.90%
Max Increase		-13.25%	-12.65%	-5.64%	-6.61%	-20.13%	-6.09%	-9.12%	-16.97%	-13.73%	-18.01%	-11.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	13	3	8	15	6	5	6	8	9	2
2022 Contract Condition								Yes	Yes		Yes
Action								Yes	No		Not Yet
High	2.533	2.608	2.949	3.205	3.428	4.076	4.163	4.292	3.942	4.792	5.048	5.832
Low	2.416	2.515	2.605	2.848	3.146	3.374	3.695	3.763	3.412	3.499	3.900	4.361
Close/Last	2.521	2.598	2.917	3.188	3.373	3.824	3.955	3.900	3.525	4.660	4.420	5.642