MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		14	14	15	15	15	12	10	12	14	17	20
Exceeded High		11	9	14	11	12	8	8	10	12	12	18
Scenario Percentage		79%	64%	93%	73%	80%	67%	80%	83%	86%	71%	90%
Avg Max Increase		6.94%	7.69%	11.15%	8.37%	7.02%	9.35%	16.26%	18.96%	17.55%	20.45%	10.07%
Max Increase		16.77%	27.44%	41.31%	23.54%	14.89%	22.06%	31.67%	62.43%	43.11%	54.87%	35.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	15	19	19	17	14	19	18	20	14	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.47%	-2.31%	-2.76%	-2.29%	-3.90%	-3.02%	-1.64%	-2.07%	-3.29%	-3.65%	-4.08%
Max Decline		-4.89%	-7.32%	-11.20%	-5.03%	-13.36%	-10.81%	-4.42%	-6.21%	-7.50%	-8.72%	-8.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	13	12	8	14	5	8	5	8	8	5
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		29	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		15	17	16	16	15	19	21	19	17	14	11
Penetrated Low		11	13	11	12	13	15	18	15	13	10	10
Scenario Percentage		73%	76%	69%	75%	87%	79%	86%	79%	76%	71%	91%
Avg Max Decline		6.03%	7.81%	9.14%	9.36%	8.99%	13.51%	14.75%	13.38%	15.23%	12.19%	6.87%
Max Decline		12.45%	14.66%	17.78%	22.61%	19.01%	23.62%	31.56%	34.01%	29.94%	27.60%	16.45%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	19	19	18	22	19	18	15	20	12	13
Avg Max Increase		-3.67%	-2.67%	-1.90%	-1.96%	-5.49%	-2.11%	-2.61%	-3.28%	-6.34%	-6.04%	-3.90%
Max Increase		-13.25%	-12.65%	-5.64%	-6.61%	-20.13%	-6.09%	-9.12%	-16.97%	-13.73%	-18.01%	-11.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	13	3	8	15	6	5	6	8	9	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes		Yes	No			Yes
High	2.601	2.618	2.531	2.586	2.787	2.832	3.001	3.011	2.761	2.822	3.060	2.916
Low	2.324	2.460	2.396	2.397	2.535	2.712	2.650	2.542	2.352	2.527	2.734	2.459
Close/Last	2.581	2.484	2.443	2.529	2.771	2.748	2.975	2.698	2.555	2.625	2.809	2.608