MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		26	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		13	13	14	13	14	9	9	11	12	15	20
Exceeded High		10	8	13	9	11	5	7	10	10	11	17
Scenario Percentage		77%	62%	93%	69%	79%	56%	78%	91%	83%	73%	85%
Avg Max Increase		7.43%	8.42%	11.09%	8.91%	7.06%	11.90%	17.75%	18.96%	18.95%	22.07%	10.08%
Max Increase		16.77%	27.44%	41.31%	23.54%	14.89%	22.06%	31.67%	62.43%	43.11%	54.87%	35.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	15	20	19	18	20	21	18	21	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.51%	-2.14%	-2.99%	-1.98%	-4.05%	-4.03%	-1.76%	-2.07%	-3.76%	-3.80%	-4.07%
Max Decline		-4.89%	-7.32%	-11.20%	-5.03%	-13.36%	-10.81%	-4.42%	-6.21%	-7.50%	-8.72%	-8.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	12	6	13	5	8	5	9	8	5
2018 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes		No		No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		26	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		13	15	14	15	13	19	19	17	16	13	8
Penetrated Low		9	12	10	12	12	15	16	14	12	9	6
Scenario Percentage		69%	80%	71%	80%	92%	79%	84%	82%	75%	69%	75%
Avg Max Decline		6.06%	7.82%	9.47%	9.36%	9.12%	13.51%	15.13%	14.08%	14.96%	11.92%	6.54%
Max Decline		12.45%	14.66%	17.78%	22.61%	19.01%	23.62%	31.56%	34.01%	29.94%	27.60%	13.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	19	18	23	19	17	15	20	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-4.13%	-2.56%	-1.96%	-1.96%	-5.15%	-2.11%	-2.54%	-3.42%	-6.38%	-4.70%	-3.33%
Max Increase		-13.25%	-12.65%	-5.64%	-6.61%	-20.13%	-6.09%	-9.12%	-16.97%	-13.73%	-11.73%	-7.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	13	4	8	13	6	6	6	7	8	1
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No			Yes		No		Not Yet
High	2.922	2.916	2.877	2.878	2.892	2.957	3.000	2.971	2.899	2.951	2.844	2.831
Low	2.808	2.835	2.779	2.740	2.761	2.853	2.840	2.807	2.504	2.607	2.600	2.610
Close/Last	2.905	2.838	2.818	2.769	2.889	2.904	2.851	2.861	2.741	2.854	2.696	2.733