MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		25	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Higher		13	13	14	12	13	9	8	11	11	15	19
Exceeded High		10	8	13	8	10	5	7	10	10	11	17
Scenario Percentage		77%	62%	93%	67%	77%	56%	88%	91%	91%	73%	89%
Avg Max Increase		7.43%	8.42%	11.09%	9.54%	7.44%	11.90%	17.75%	18.96%	18.95%	22.07%	10.08%
Max Increase		16.77%	27.44%	41.31%	23.54%	14.89%	22.06%	31.67%	62.43%	43.11%	54.87%	35.33%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	15	20	18	18	20	21	18	21	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.51%	-2.14%	-2.99%	-2.07%	-4.30%	-4.03%	-1.76%	-2.07%	-3.76%	-3.80%	-4.07%
Max Decline		-4.89%	-7.32%	-11.20%	-5.03%	-13.36%	-10.81%	-4.42%	-6.21%	-7.50%	-8.72%	-8.03%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	11	12	7	15	5	8	5	9	8	5
2017 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		25	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
Closed Lower		12	14	13	15	13	18	19	16	16	12	8
Penetrated Low		8	11	10	12	12	14	16	14	12	9	6
Scenario Percentage		67%	79%	77%	80%	92%	78%	84%	88%	75%	75%	75%
Avg Max Decline		6.39%	8.28%	9.47%	9.36%	9.12%	13.60%	15.13%	14.08%	14.96%	11.92%	6.54%
Max Decline		12.45%	14.66%	17.78%	22.61%	19.01%	23.62%	31.56%	34.01%	29.94%	27.60%	13.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	20	19	18	23	19	17	15	20	13	10
Avg Max Increase		-4.48%	-2.73%	-1.96%	-1.96%	-5.15%	-1.96%	-2.54%	-3.42%	-6.38%	-4.70%	-3.33%
Max Increase		-13.25%	-12.65%	-5.64%	-6.61%	-20.13%	-6.09%	-9.12%	-16.97%	-13.73%	-11.73%	-7.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	14	4	8	13	6	6	6	7	8	1
2017 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		No			No	Yes				Yes	Not Yet
High	2.885	2.898	3.062	3.087	3.050	3.092	3.305	3.261	3.603	3.507	3.311	3.253
Low	2.621	2.691	2.834	2.906	2.876	2.907	2.949	2.731	3.189	3.110	2.737	2.836
Close/Last	2.878	2.866	3.029	3.036	2.992	2.964	3.062	3.217	3.543	3.208	2.870	3.190