MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Natural Gas(NYM) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		31	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		21	17	15	15	17	17	13	10	12	15	17
Exceeded High		18	13	10	13	14	14	9	6	9	12	12
Scenario Percentage		86%	76%	67%	87%	82%	82%	69%	60%	75%	80%	71%
Avg Max Increase		10.41%	8.62%	8.67%	13.96%	9.02%	7.78%	11.00%	24.65%	25.07%	22.25%	14.54%
Max Increase		40.87%	24.57%	30.16%	44.89%	24.32%	17.16%	32.21%	36.90%	91.38%	61.63%	51.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	16	18	17	17	15	24	20	17	18
Avg Max Decline		-2.54%	-1.38%	-1.91%	-3.02%	-2.43%	-4.11%	-3.70%	-1.94%	-3.33%	-4.06%	-3.32%
Max Decline		-7.88%	-4.92%	-3.97%	-11.95%	-6.23%	-13.58%	-11.26%	-5.51%	-10.03%	-17.28%	-10.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	8	9	12	9	17	5	2	8	5	4
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		31	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		9	16	18	17	16	16	20	23	21	18	16
Penetrated Low		5	10	13	11	12	14	17	20	16	16	11
Scenario Percentage		56%	63%	72%	65%	75%	88%	85%	87%	76%	89%	69%
Avg Max Decline		4.35%	7.16%	8.07%	9.62%	9.89%	10.19%	13.92%	16.18%	16.94%	15.12%	9.83%
Max Decline		8.84%	14.17%	14.58%	19.01%	23.69%	19.10%	24.24%	32.58%	46.06%	31.64%	19.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	18	17	15	23	20	18	16	20	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.09%	-3.79%	-3.18%	-2.17%	-1.99%	-5.74%	-2.98%	-3.41%	-4.09%	-7.37%	-4.60%
Max Increase		-5.58%	-12.86%	-13.78%	-5.75%	-7.55%	-21.08%	-12.73%	-11.97%	-23.19%	-15.47%	-18.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	12	3	8	13	5	5	6	10	5
2023 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action				Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	4.092	5.049	5.316	6.165	5.475	5.991	6.017	5.199	5.403	5.397	3.875	2.836
Low	3.370	3.985	4.349	4.288	4.145	4.751	4.784	4.375	4.541	3.860	2.661	2.113
Close/Last	4.031	4.538	5.093	4.335	4.943	5.925	4.887	4.793	5.247	3.917	2.741	2.747