MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		20	16	15	14	16	17	13	9	12	15	16
Exceeded High		17	12	10	12	13	14	9	6	9	12	11
Scenario Percentage		85%	75%	67%	86%	81%	82%	69%	67%	75%	80%	69%
Avg Max Increase		8.91%	7.58%	8.67%	13.32%	9.60%	7.78%	11.00%	24.65%	25.07%	22.25%	14.93%
Max Increase		40.87%	24.57%	30.16%	44.89%	24.32%	17.16%	32.21%	36.90%	91.38%	61.63%	51.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	16	20	18	17	15	24	20	17	19
Avg Max Decline		-2.45%	-1.52%	-1.91%	-2.95%	-2.54%	-4.11%	-3.70%	-1.94%	-3.33%	-4.06%	-3.35%
Max Decline		-7.88%	-4.92%	-3.97%	-11.95%	-6.23%	-13.58%	-11.26%	-5.51%	-10.03%	-17.28%	-10.23%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	9	13	10	17	5	2	8	5	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		9	16	17	17	16	15	19	23	20	17	16
Penetrated Low		5	10	12	11	12	13	16	20	15	15	11
Scenario Percentage		56%	63%	71%	65%	75%	87%	84%	87%	75%	88%	69%
Avg Max Decline		4.35%	7.16%	8.37%	9.62%	9.89%	10.17%	13.57%	16.18%	15.00%	14.32%	9.83%
Max Decline		8.84%	14.17%	14.58%	19.01%	23.69%	19.10%	24.24%	32.58%	36.48%	31.64%	19.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	19	17	15	23	19	18	16	20	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.09%	-3.79%	-3.21%	-2.17%	-1.99%	-5.69%	-2.37%	-3.41%	-4.43%	-7.17%	-4.60%
Max Increase		-5.58%	-12.86%	-13.78%	-5.75%	-7.55%	-21.08%	-6.65%	-11.97%	-23.19%	-15.47%	-18.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	13	3	8	13	4	5	6	9	5
2022 Contract Condition									Yes	Yes		Yes
Action									Yes	No		Not Yet
High	2.534	2.593	2.667	3.047	3.296	3.529	4.302	4.314	4.363	3.981	4.803	5.053
Low	2.397	2.454	2.566	2.650	2.932	3.210	3.473	3.850	3.827	3.383	3.474	3.867
Close/Last	2.483	2.574	2.646	2.998	3.267	3.470	3.996	4.047	3.934	3.507	4.675	4.402