MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Natural Gas(NYM) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		31	32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		21	23	16	13	14	17	16	13	10	11	13
Exceeded High		21	20	12	7	13	15	13	5	6	10	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	87%	75%	54%	93%	88%	81%	38%	60%	91%	85%
Avg Max Increase		13.12%	11.25%	10.38%	14.35%	18.48%	12.06%	11.20%	25.31%	35.01%	21.89%	14.59%
Max Increase		49.20%	41.19%	30.63%	45.89%	59.17%	48.40%	23.36%	55.31%	57.64%	52.64%	29.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	18	18	21	14	15	13	19	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-2.37%	-2.59%	-1.59%	-1.95%	-3.99%	-3.42%	-4.36%	-2.85%	-2.57%	-4.22%	-4.22%
Max Decline		-6.69%	-8.60%	-6.33%	-5.69%	-12.61%	-13.02%	-14.19%	-6.98%	-13.09%	-15.72%	-18.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	6	10	9	11	3	9	6	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		31	32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		10	9	17	20	19	16	17	20	23	22	20
Penetrated Low		9	7	14	15	17	13	15	17	20	19	16
Scenario Percentage		90%	78%	82%	75%	89%	81%	88%	85%	87%	86%	80%
Avg Max Decline		5.79%	5.80%	8.01%	9.35%	8.96%	11.62%	12.60%	17.91%	18.67%	18.92%	12.77%
Max Decline		17.90%	12.62%	17.21%	17.79%	23.20%	29.22%	20.59%	33.61%	36.08%	52.07%	26.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	17	21	19	16	17	22	19	20	15	18
Avg Max Increase		-4.40%	-3.35%	-4.17%	-3.35%	-2.98%	-2.97%	-6.38%	-6.35%	-3.95%	-5.37%	-5.36%
Max Increase		-12.76%	-7.89%	-13.60%	-10.34%	-8.44%	-10.67%	-23.13%	-26.05%	-13.34%	-37.04%	-22.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	10	9	13	8	11	13	8	5	7	3
2023 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	4.734	5.388	7.225	7.524	8.368	7.450	7.898	7.936	6.413	6.918	6.379	4.005
Low	3.950	4.240	5.173	5.732	4.975	4.924	6.170	5.854	4.994	5.216	4.015	2.612
Close/Last	4.270	5.260	6.166	6.835	5.012	6.636	7.660	6.028	5.717	6.178	4.104	2.684