MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		30	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		20	22	15	13	13	16	16	13	9	11	13
Exceeded High		20	19	11	7	12	14	13	5	6	10	11
Scenario Percentage		100%	86%	73%	54%	92%	88%	81%	38%	67%	91%	85%
Avg Max Increase		11.62%	9.96%	9.28%	14.35%	18.38%	12.67%	11.20%	25.31%	35.01%	21.89%	14.59%
Max Increase		49.20%	41.19%	30.63%	45.89%	59.17%	48.40%	23.36%	55.31%	57.64%	52.64%	29.48%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	16	19	18	22	14	15	13	19	14	12
Avg Max Decline		-2.41%	-2.36%	-1.78%	-1.95%	-3.74%	-2.74%	-4.36%	-2.85%	-2.57%	-4.22%	-4.22%
Max Decline		-6.69%	-8.60%	-6.33%	-5.69%	-12.61%	-7.33%	-14.19%	-6.98%	-13.09%	-15.72%	-18.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	8	6	10	9	11	3	9	6	3
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		30	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		10	9	17	19	19	16	16	19	23	21	19
Penetrated Low		9	7	14	14	17	13	14	16	20	18	15
Scenario Percentage		90%	78%	82%	74%	89%	81%	88%	84%	87%	86%	79%
Avg Max Decline		5.79%	5.80%	8.01%	9.89%	8.96%	11.62%	12.27%	17.17%	18.67%	17.08%	11.84%
Max Decline		17.90%	12.62%	17.21%	17.79%	23.20%	29.22%	20.59%	33.61%	36.08%	38.59%	25.13%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	17	21	20	16	17	22	19	20	15	18
Avg Max Increase		-4.40%	-3.35%	-4.17%	-3.12%	-2.98%	-2.97%	-6.38%	-5.43%	-3.95%	-5.80%	-5.48%
Max Increase		-12.76%	-7.89%	-13.60%	-10.34%	-8.44%	-10.67%	-23.13%	-26.05%	-13.34%	-37.04%	-22.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	10	9	14	8	11	13	7	5	8	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No							Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	3.096	2.965	3.008	3.119	3.618	3.953	4.211	5.866	6.132	5.468	4.354	5.057
Low	2.847	2.722	2.764	2.963	3.038	3.430	3.703	4.139	4.850	4.208	3.416	3.500
Close/Last	2.893	2.818	2.980	3.026	3.488	3.828	4.132	5.517	5.145	4.280	3.557	4.874