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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Closed Higher   18 21 23 16 14 14 16 17 14 12 12
Exceeded High   14 21 21 13 7 13 12 15 5 8 9
Scenario Percentage   78% 100% 91% 81% 50% 93% 75% 88% 36% 67% 75%
Avg Max Increase   12.28% 13.88% 10.89% 10.37% 14.35% 20.31% 17.32% 15.87% 28.00% 35.23% 16.68%
Max Increase   31.04% 56.77% 40.31% 32.99% 46.67% 62.28% 47.15% 57.18% 63.61% 61.54% 28.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 17 15 18 16 22 16 15 13 19 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.71% -2.28% -2.97% -1.68% -2.35% -4.21% -2.75% -4.36% -3.09% -4.92% -0.93%
Max Decline   -6.55% -6.55% -10.66% -5.23% -5.63% -12.97% -8.02% -14.84% -7.41% -15.50% -8.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 8 7 9 10 11 9 11 3 6 5
2025 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes Yes
Action       Yes Yes No     Yes   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Closed Lower   16 13 11 18 20 21 19 18 21 23 23
Penetrated Low   7 11 9 15 15 19 15 17 18 20 16
Scenario Percentage   44% 85% 82% 83% 75% 90% 79% 94% 86% 87% 70%
Avg Max Decline   9.20% 6.80% 9.39% 8.94% 9.86% 9.07% 11.56% 14.04% 19.30% 22.21% 18.38%
Max Decline   14.43% 20.31% 26.74% 17.21% 19.37% 23.49% 29.36% 22.10% 35.25% 41.55% 38.30%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 21 16 21 18 16 17 22 20 18 19
Avg Max Increase   -2.67% -3.42% -3.09% -3.75% -2.72% -3.46% -3.40% -6.94% -6.63% -4.58% -2.50%
Max Increase   -6.33% -11.49% -7.98% -13.78% -8.56% -8.87% -10.56% -27.12% -25.13% -16.00% -16.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 13 9 8 15 7 11 13 8 6 6
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes   Yes    
Action   No No       Yes Yes   Yes    
High 3.945 3.673 3.686 3.702 3.945 4.038 3.666 3.514 3.510 3.536 3.471 4.201
Low 3.581 3.346 3.478 3.501 3.521 3.615 3.278 3.182 3.137 2.878 2.720 2.864
Close/Last 3.631 3.614 3.551 3.623 3.654 3.662 3.329 3.202 3.484 2.888 3.204 3.633

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