MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		18	21	22	15	13	14	16	16	14	11	11
Exceeded High		14	21	20	12	7	13	12	14	5	7	8
Scenario Percentage		78%	100%	91%	80%	54%	93%	75%	88%	36%	64%	73%
Avg Max Increase		12.28%	13.88%	10.86%	10.36%	14.35%	20.31%	17.32%	16.90%	28.00%	35.07%	16.23%
Max Increase		31.04%	56.77%	40.31%	32.99%	46.67%	62.28%	47.15%	57.18%	63.61%	61.54%	28.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	15	19	16	22	16	16	13	20	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.71%	-2.28%	-2.98%	-1.73%	-2.35%	-4.21%	-2.75%	-4.49%	-3.09%	-4.10%	-0.00%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.55%	-10.66%	-5.23%	-5.63%	-12.97%	-8.02%	-14.84%	-7.41%	-15.50%	-6.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	9	10	11	9	11	3	7	5
2024 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes		Yes
Action						Yes		No		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		33	33	33	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		15	12	11	18	20	20	18	18	20	23	23
Penetrated Low		7	11	9	15	15	18	14	17	17	20	16
Scenario Percentage		47%	92%	82%	83%	75%	90%	78%	94%	85%	87%	70%
Avg Max Decline		9.20%	6.80%	9.39%	8.94%	9.86%	9.25%	11.66%	14.04%	20.10%	22.21%	18.38%
Max Decline		14.43%	20.31%	26.74%	17.21%	19.37%	23.49%	29.36%	22.10%	35.25%	41.55%	38.30%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	21	16	21	18	16	16	22	20	18	19
Avg Max Increase		-2.67%	-3.42%	-3.09%	-3.75%	-2.72%	-3.35%	-2.90%	-6.94%	-6.87%	-4.58%	-2.50%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-11.49%	-7.98%	-13.78%	-8.56%	-8.87%	-10.56%	-27.12%	-25.13%	-16.00%	-16.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	13	9	8	15	7	9	13	8	6	6
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	4.864	4.280	4.316	3.855	3.931	3.835	3.811	3.993	3.793	3.892	3.792	2.801
Low	4.129	3.699	3.674	3.523	3.564	3.495	3.611	3.595	3.429	3.406	2.724	2.187
Close/Last	4.236	4.117	3.815	3.778	3.588	3.775	3.711	3.752	3.497	3.746	2.763	2.514