MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		32	32	32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		18	21	22	15	12	14	15	16	13	11	11
Exceeded High		14	21	20	12	6	13	12	14	5	7	8
Scenario Percentage		78%	100%	91%	80%	50%	93%	80%	88%	38%	64%	73%
Avg Max Increase		12.28%	13.88%	10.86%	10.36%	15.78%	20.31%	17.32%	16.90%	28.00%	34.36%	15.65%
Max Increase		31.04%	56.77%	40.31%	32.99%	46.67%	62.28%	47.15%	57.18%	63.61%	61.54%	24.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	15	19	16	22	16	16	13	19	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.71%	-2.28%	-2.98%	-1.73%	-1.95%	-4.21%	-2.75%	-4.49%	-3.09%	-4.10%	-0.00%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.55%	-10.66%	-5.23%	-5.63%	-12.97%	-8.02%	-14.84%	-7.41%	-15.50%	-6.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	9	6	11	9	11	3	7	5
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		32	32	32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		14	11	10	17	20	19	18	17	20	22	22
Penetrated Low		6	10	8	14	15	17	14	16	17	19	16
Scenario Percentage		43%	91%	80%	82%	75%	89%	78%	94%	85%	86%	73%
Avg Max Decline		8.33%	6.71%	9.63%	9.39%	9.86%	9.35%	11.66%	13.54%	20.10%	22.00%	18.02%
Max Decline		13.86%	20.31%	26.74%	17.21%	19.37%	23.49%	29.36%	21.60%	35.25%	41.55%	38.30%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	21	18	23	18	15	16	21	20	18	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-3.89%	-2.97%	-4.03%	-2.72%	-3.10%	-2.90%	-6.67%	-6.87%	-4.75%	-2.50%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-11.49%	-7.98%	-13.78%	-8.56%	-8.87%	-10.56%	-27.12%	-25.13%	-16.00%	-16.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	14	8	9	15	7	9	13	8	6	6
2023 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No				No			Yes	Yes		Yes
High	5.005	5.255	6.029	8.300	9.188	9.418	9.072	9.587	9.271	7.278	7.907	7.075
Low	3.959	4.295	4.639	5.750	6.540	5.500	5.512	7.375	6.684	5.475	5.848	4.378
Close/Last	4.898	4.685	5.861	7.320	7.939	5.562	7.973	9.013	6.937	6.379	6.818	4.475