MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		18	20	21	14	12	13	14	16	13	10	11
Exceeded High		14	20	19	11	6	12	12	14	5	7	8
Scenario Percentage		78%	100%	90%	79%	50%	92%	86%	88%	38%	70%	73%
Avg Max Increase		12.28%	11.73%	9.92%	9.61%	15.78%	20.31%	17.32%	16.90%	28.00%	34.36%	15.65%
Max Increase		31.04%	47.84%	40.31%	32.99%	46.67%	62.28%	47.15%	57.18%	63.61%	61.54%	24.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	15	20	16	22	16	16	13	19	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.71%	-2.30%	-2.57%	-1.90%	-1.95%	-3.94%	-2.75%	-4.49%	-3.09%	-4.10%	-0.00%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.55%	-8.99%	-5.23%	-5.63%	-12.97%	-8.02%	-14.84%	-7.41%	-15.50%	-6.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	10	6	11	9	11	3	7	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		13	11	10	17	19	19	18	16	19	22	21
Penetrated Low		6	10	8	14	15	17	14	15	16	19	15
Scenario Percentage		46%	91%	80%	82%	79%	89%	78%	94%	84%	86%	71%
Avg Max Decline		8.33%	6.71%	9.63%	9.39%	9.86%	9.35%	11.66%	13.04%	19.39%	22.00%	16.66%
Max Decline		13.86%	20.31%	26.74%	17.21%	19.37%	23.49%	29.36%	21.60%	35.25%	41.55%	30.96%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	21	18	23	18	15	16	21	20	18	17
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-3.89%	-2.97%	-4.03%	-2.72%	-3.10%	-2.90%	-6.79%	-5.80%	-4.75%	-2.79%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-11.49%	-7.98%	-13.78%	-8.56%	-8.87%	-10.56%	-27.12%	-25.13%	-16.00%	-16.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	14	8	9	15	7	9	14	7	6	6
2022 Contract Condition			Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No							Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	3.119	3.298	3.188	3.226	3.348	3.885	4.269	4.568	6.357	6.557	5.833	4.603
Low	2.959	3.068	2.876	2.923	3.154	3.224	3.641	3.937	4.461	5.100	4.420	3.518
Close/Last	3.008	3.117	2.992	3.184	3.210	3.725	4.069	4.456	5.951	5.433	4.506	3.730