MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		17	20	20	13	11	12	13	15	13	10	11
Exceeded High		14	20	18	10	5	11	11	13	5	7	8
Scenario Percentage		82%	100%	90%	77%	45%	92%	85%	87%	38%	70%	73%
Avg Max Increase		12.28%	11.73%	9.25%	7.27%	14.40%	17.05%	14.61%	17.41%	28.00%	34.36%	15.65%
Max Increase		31.04%	47.84%	40.31%	14.47%	46.67%	62.28%	27.84%	57.18%	63.61%	61.54%	24.02%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	17	14	19	13	21	17	17	13	19	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.71%	-2.30%	-2.67%	-2.13%	-1.88%	-4.00%	-3.01%	-4.46%	-3.09%	-4.10%	-0.00%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.55%	-8.99%	-5.23%	-5.63%	-12.97%	-8.02%	-14.84%	-7.41%	-15.50%	-6.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	7	11	6	11	9	12	3	7	5
2021 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		13	10	10	17	19	19	18	16	18	21	20
Penetrated Low		6	10	8	14	15	17	14	15	15	18	15
Scenario Percentage		46%	100%	80%	82%	79%	89%	78%	94%	83%	86%	75%
Avg Max Decline		8.33%	6.71%	9.63%	9.39%	9.86%	9.35%	11.66%	13.04%	18.33%	22.00%	16.66%
Max Decline		13.86%	20.31%	26.74%	17.21%	19.37%	23.49%	29.36%	21.60%	28.29%	41.55%	30.96%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	21	18	23	18	15	16	21	20	17	17
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-3.89%	-2.97%	-4.03%	-2.72%	-3.10%	-2.90%	-6.79%	-5.69%	-4.89%	-2.79%
Max Increase		-6.33%	-11.49%	-7.98%	-13.78%	-8.56%	-8.87%	-10.56%	-27.12%	-25.13%	-16.00%	-16.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	14	8	9	15	7	9	14	8	6	6
2021 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	No			Yes		Yes	Not Yet
High	2.687	2.581	2.724	3.087	3.157	3.009	2.983	3.332	3.420	3.452	3.448	2.950
Low	2.500	2.404	2.389	2.683	2.874	2.750	2.756	2.901	3.123	3.041	2.640	2.263
Close/Last	2.520	2.431	2.706	3.073	2.919	2.847	2.884	3.306	3.221	3.416	2.865	2.539