MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		28	28	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		16	19	19	13	11	11	12	14	11	10	11
Exceeded High		13	19	17	10	5	10	10	12	4	7	8
Scenario Percentage		81%	100%	89%	77%	45%	91%	83%	86%	36%	70%	73%
Avg Max Increase		13.09%	11.47%	9.63%	7.27%	14.40%	16.89%	15.63%	17.78%	32.88%	35.07%	16.23%
Max Increase		31.04%	47.84%	40.31%	14.47%	46.67%	62.28%	27.84%	57.18%	63.61%	61.54%	28.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	15	19	13	21	16	18	15	20	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.79%	-2.37%	-2.73%	-2.13%	-1.88%	-4.46%	-2.51%	-4.50%	-3.38%	-4.10%	-0.00%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.55%	-8.99%	-5.23%	-5.63%	-12.97%	-5.91%	-14.84%	-7.41%	-15.50%	-6.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	7	11	6	11	7	11	3	7	5
2019 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		28	28	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		12	9	9	15	17	18	17	15	18	19	18
Penetrated Low		5	9	7	12	14	16	14	14	15	16	14
Scenario Percentage		42%	100%	78%	80%	82%	89%	82%	93%	83%	84%	78%
Avg Max Decline		9.65%	6.75%	9.15%	9.55%	9.97%	9.55%	11.66%	12.68%	18.33%	22.57%	17.09%
Max Decline		13.86%	20.31%	26.74%	17.21%	19.37%	23.49%	29.36%	21.60%	28.29%	41.55%	30.96%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	20	18	22	19	16	16	21	20	18	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.50%	-4.10%	-2.84%	-4.39%	-2.52%	-3.15%	-2.90%	-6.76%	-5.69%	-4.75%	-2.77%
Max Increase		-2.89%	-11.49%	-7.98%	-13.78%	-8.56%	-8.87%	-10.56%	-27.12%	-25.13%	-16.00%	-16.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	15	7	9	15	7	9	13	8	7	5
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		No		Yes		Yes	Yes					Yes
High	3.199	3.139	3.119	3.085	3.170	3.206	3.088	3.145	3.161	3.375	4.849	4.533
Low	2.952	2.954	2.984	2.974	2.923	3.083	2.912	2.954	2.904	3.083	3.111	2.930
Close/Last	3.148	3.017	3.059	3.002	3.128	3.098	3.005	3.078	3.085	3.210	4.419	2.940