MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		15	16	15	12	9	11	9	13	10	6	9
Exceeded High		13	16	14	9	4	10	8	11	3	5	7
Scenario Percentage		87%	100%	93%	75%	44%	91%	89%	85%	30%	83%	78%
Avg Max Increase		13.09%	12.36%	10.23%	7.80%	17.67%	16.89%	17.86%	14.19%	26.82%	41.93%	17.59%
Max Increase		31.04%	47.84%	40.31%	14.47%	46.67%	62.28%	27.84%	34.35%	63.61%	61.54%	28.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	14	19	16	21	16	19	16	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.79%	-2.42%	-2.51%	-2.21%	-2.16%	-4.46%	-2.07%	-4.90%	-3.48%	-2.24%	0.60%
Max Decline		-6.55%	-6.55%	-8.99%	-5.23%	-5.63%	-12.97%	-5.91%	-14.84%	-7.41%	-9.36%	-6.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	8	7	12	8	11	6	12	4	1	6
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	23	23	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		8	7	8	11	14	13	15	11	14	18	15
Penetrated Low		4	7	6	9	11	12	12	10	11	15	12
Scenario Percentage		50%	100%	75%	82%	79%	92%	80%	91%	79%	83%	80%
Avg Max Decline		10.13%	7.48%	10.24%	10.16%	10.36%	10.88%	11.37%	11.62%	17.28%	22.66%	19.40%
Max Decline		13.86%	20.31%	26.74%	17.21%	19.37%	23.49%	29.36%	21.56%	27.37%	41.55%	30.96%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	22	20	23	20	16	15	21	20	18	20
Avg Max Increase		-1.23%	-3.94%	-3.09%	-4.95%	-3.03%	-3.32%	-2.27%	-7.78%	-4.88%	-5.01%	-1.62%
Max Increase		-2.89%	-11.49%	-7.98%	-13.78%	-8.56%	-8.87%	-10.37%	-27.12%	-25.13%	-16.00%	-10.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	15	8	10	17	7	6	12	6	8	5
2014 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	4.216	4.138	4.432	4.720	4.770	4.339	4.130	3.994	4.120	4.096	3.963	4.578
Low	3.875	3.903	4.055	4.314	4.298	3.885	3.799	3.570	3.734	3.655	3.476	3.902
Close/Last	4.061	4.083	4.393	4.685	4.300	3.903	3.844	3.928	3.837	3.672	3.957	4.230