MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		17	18	20	22	15	13	13	16	17	12	8
Exceeded High		15	14	20	18	11	7	12	13	15	5	5
Scenario Percentage		88%	78%	100%	82%	73%	54%	92%	81%	88%	42%	63%
Avg Max Increase		10.68%	12.11%	11.71%	11.48%	9.90%	16.81%	21.47%	16.92%	17.60%	29.55%	40.59%
Max Increase		25.04%	31.64%	47.87%	40.48%	33.03%	48.16%	64.91%	46.11%	56.64%	70.50%	84.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	17	17	16	18	17	23	15	16	14	23
Avg Max Decline		-2.04%	-1.95%	-2.46%	-2.44%	-2.49%	-2.64%	-3.90%	-2.91%	-4.53%	-3.03%	-3.17%
Max Decline		-4.65%	-6.85%	-6.57%	-9.29%	-6.74%	-5.99%	-13.28%	-8.23%	-15.91%	-6.78%	-11.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	10	5	12	7	11	9	7	3	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		30	31	31	31	32	32	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		12	13	11	9	17	19	19	16	15	20	24
Penetrated Low		12	6	10	8	14	16	17	13	14	18	21
Scenario Percentage		100%	46%	91%	89%	82%	84%	89%	81%	93%	90%	88%
Avg Max Decline		7.26%	8.46%	7.01%	9.15%	9.67%	10.00%	9.90%	12.46%	15.07%	19.62%	14.19%
Max Decline		18.30%	13.87%	20.78%	26.58%	17.81%	21.28%	23.85%	29.96%	23.74%	34.91%	24.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	18	22	19	23	21	15	17	20	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-3.27%	-2.55%	-4.00%	-3.17%	-4.23%	-3.01%	-3.54%	-3.31%	-7.04%	-6.23%	-5.15%
Max Increase		-9.98%	-6.58%	-11.41%	-7.95%	-13.60%	-8.21%	-9.78%	-12.23%	-25.00%	-24.83%	-25.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	12	15	11	9	16	6	12	21	8	3
2022 Contract Condition				Yes							Yes	Yes
Action				No							Yes	Yes
High	3.187	3.192	3.370	3.272	3.308	3.439	3.976	4.362	4.689	6.490	6.667	5.975
Low	2.810	3.011	3.141	2.920	2.974	3.220	3.293	3.716	4.009	4.577	5.181	4.482
Close/Last	3.006	3.060	3.195	3.049	3.259	3.279	3.807	4.149	4.563	6.073	5.529	4.567