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ScenarioSM Study for January Natural Gas(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 8 | |
Exceeded High | 15 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 5 | |
Scenario Percentage | 88% | 78% | 100% | 82% | 73% | 54% | 92% | 81% | 88% | 42% | 63% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.68% | 12.11% | 11.71% | 11.48% | 9.90% | 16.81% | 21.47% | 16.92% | 17.60% | 29.55% | 40.59% | |
Max Increase | 25.04% | 31.64% | 47.87% | 40.48% | 33.03% | 48.16% | 64.91% | 46.11% | 56.64% | 70.50% | 84.34% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 23 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.04% | -1.95% | -2.46% | -2.44% | -2.49% | -2.64% | -3.90% | -2.91% | -4.53% | -3.03% | -3.17% | |
Max Decline | -4.65% | -6.85% | -6.57% | -9.29% | -6.74% | -5.99% | -13.28% | -8.23% | -15.91% | -6.78% | -11.07% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 5 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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