MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		29	30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		16	17	20	21	14	12	12	15	16	12	8
Exceeded High		14	14	20	17	10	6	11	12	14	5	5
Scenario Percentage		88%	82%	100%	81%	71%	50%	92%	80%	88%	42%	63%
Avg Max Increase		10.72%	12.11%	11.71%	10.86%	7.58%	15.76%	18.30%	14.49%	18.16%	29.55%	40.59%
Max Increase		25.04%	31.64%	47.87%	40.48%	14.74%	48.16%	64.91%	28.43%	56.64%	70.50%	84.34%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	17	17	15	17	15	22	16	17	14	23
Avg Max Decline		-2.38%	-1.95%	-2.46%	-2.51%	-2.78%	-2.68%	-3.95%	-3.18%	-4.50%	-3.03%	-3.17%
Max Decline		-4.65%	-6.85%	-6.57%	-9.29%	-6.74%	-5.99%	-13.28%	-8.23%	-15.91%	-6.78%	-11.07%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	10	5	13	7	10	9	8	3	5
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		29	30	30	30	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		12	13	10	9	17	19	19	16	15	19	23
Penetrated Low		12	6	10	8	14	16	17	13	14	17	20
Scenario Percentage		100%	46%	100%	89%	82%	84%	89%	81%	93%	89%	87%
Avg Max Decline		7.26%	8.46%	7.01%	9.15%	9.67%	10.00%	9.90%	12.46%	15.07%	18.73%	13.84%
Max Decline		18.30%	13.87%	20.78%	26.58%	17.81%	21.28%	23.85%	29.96%	23.74%	32.37%	24.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	18	22	19	23	21	15	17	20	16	18
Avg Max Increase		-3.27%	-2.55%	-4.00%	-3.17%	-4.23%	-3.01%	-3.54%	-3.31%	-7.04%	-6.13%	-5.30%
Max Increase		-9.98%	-6.58%	-11.41%	-7.95%	-13.60%	-8.21%	-9.78%	-12.23%	-25.00%	-24.83%	-25.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	12	15	11	9	16	6	12	21	9	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes	No			Yes		Yes
High	2.739	2.736	2.617	2.757	3.127	3.208	3.044	3.019	3.384	3.479	3.507	3.505
Low	2.653	2.534	2.434	2.421	2.713	2.909	2.778	2.785	2.933	3.156	3.079	2.656
Close/Last	2.720	2.552	2.462	2.739	3.115	2.955	2.883	2.915	3.355	3.267	3.469	2.882