MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March NASDAQ 100(CME) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years					11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Closed Higher					4	6	8	9	10	4	7	3
Exceeded High					3	6	8	8	10	3	2	2
Scenario Percentage					75%	100%	100%	89%	100%	75%	29%	67%
Avg Max Increase					4.89%	9.18%	12.56%	18.49%	11.44%	12.60%	6.99%	9.76%
Max Increase					9.62%	17.17%	29.81%	41.20%	35.77%	16.77%	12.73%	12.19%
Avg Days To Max Increase					9	19	25	17	15	15	14	14
Avg Max Decline					-2.45%	-1.49%	-3.86%	-0.59%	-1.81%	-4.55%	0.42%	-2.66%
Max Decline					-5.34%	-2.82%	-20.93%	-3.91%	-4.51%	-12.63%	-0.72%	-6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline					3	16	10	4	11	4	1	7
2008 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years					11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Closed Lower					7	6	4	3	2	8	5	9
Penetrated Low					6	5	2	2	2	7	4	7
Scenario Percentage					86%	83%	50%	67%	100%	88%	80%	78%
Avg Max Decline					11.66%	12.50%	17.89%	21.68%	18.73%	9.94%	7.85%	5.37%
Max Decline					33.68%	23.61%	32.63%	34.04%	19.72%	20.74%	14.32%	12.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline					15	15	19	22	13	19	17	13
Avg Max Increase					-3.04%	-5.95%	-1.78%	-3.56%	-10.64%	-7.85%	-1.69%	-2.31%
Max Increase					-9.10%	-24.14%	-6.08%	-5.52%	-18.53%	-17.58%	-2.69%	-6.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase					6	18	1	20	11	11	5	4
2008 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High				2010.50	2112.80	2048.00	2143.80	2276.00	2256.30	2173.00	2116.50	1876.80
Low				1971.00	1991.50	1900.30	2014.50	2143.30	2009.80	2022.00	1698.00	1713.00
Close/Last				2001.50	1991.80	2041.00	2136.00	2276.00	2115.00	2104.80	1847.80	1748.30