MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March NASDAQ 100(CME) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years					10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Closed Higher					4	5	7	8	10	4	7	3
Exceeded High					3	5	7	8	10	3	2	2
Scenario Percentage					75%	100%	100%	100%	100%	75%	29%	67%
Avg Max Increase					4.89%	8.71%	13.42%	18.49%	11.44%	12.60%	6.99%	7.75%
Max Increase					9.62%	17.17%	29.81%	41.20%	35.77%	16.77%	12.73%	12.19%
Avg Days To Max Increase					9	17	24	17	15	15	14	12
Avg Max Decline					-2.45%	-1.53%	-4.46%	-0.59%	-1.81%	-4.55%	0.42%	-2.66%
Max Decline					-5.34%	-2.82%	-20.93%	-3.91%	-4.51%	-12.63%	-0.72%	-6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline					3	18	12	4	11	4	1	7
2007 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Feb	Feb	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years					10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Closed Lower					6	6	4	3	1	7	4	8
Penetrated Low					5	5	2	2	1	6	2	5
Scenario Percentage					83%	83%	50%	67%	100%	86%	50%	63%
Avg Max Decline					13.07%	12.50%	17.89%	21.68%	17.75%	8.37%	9.52%	5.06%
Max Decline					33.68%	23.61%	32.63%	34.04%	17.75%	20.74%	14.32%	12.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline					15	15	19	22	3	18	17	9
Avg Max Increase					-3.08%	-5.95%	-1.78%	-3.56%	-18.53%	-9.07%	-1.24%	-2.81%
Max Increase					-9.10%	-24.14%	-6.08%	-5.52%	-18.53%	-17.58%	-1.68%	-6.43%
Avg Days to Max Increase					6	18	1	20	11	13	3	3
2007 Contract Condition					Yes					Yes		Yes
Action					No					Yes		Yes
High				1640.50	1637.50	1622.30	1697.30	1774.00	1846.50	1847.00	1868.00	1857.00
Low				1580.80	1496.30	1527.80	1605.80	1667.50	1734.80	1763.00	1747.50	1744.00
Close/Last				1627.00	1553.80	1620.80	1691.30	1763.80	1816.30	1775.00	1802.50	1765.50