MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S&P MidCap 400 Index as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5
Closed Higher		2	3	2	4	2		3	3	3	2	3
Exceeded High		2	1	2	3	2		3	3	3	2	3
Scenario Percentage		100%	33%	100%	75%	100%		100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Avg Max Increase		10.11%	10.33%	7.69%	4.71%	3.68%		11.46%	9.11%	5.50%	8.94%	6.19%
Max Increase		18.21%	10.33%	10.79%	5.99%	4.92%		22.86%	14.49%	11.90%	14.64%	7.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase		9	8	19	9	24		12	27	18	8	24
Avg Max Decline		-5.12%	-0.11%	-2.83%	-1.47%	-6.83%		-1.10%	-2.58%	-2.16%	-0.08%	-2.99%
Max Decline		-9.32%	-0.11%	-3.10%	-2.71%	-8.18%		-4.38%	-7.75%	-3.73%	-0.44%	-5.84%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	1	7	9	22		2	7	8	1	4
2024 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	No				Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5
Closed Lower		2	1	2		2	4	1	1	1	2	2
Penetrated Low		2		1		2	1		1		1	2
Scenario Percentage		100%	0%	50%		100%	25%	0%	100%	0%	50%	100%
Avg Max Decline		8.22%		5.40%		11.15%	7.18%		7.79%		5.73%	22.24%
Max Decline		12.51%		5.40%		12.21%	7.18%		7.79%		5.73%	34.85%
Avg Days To Max Decline		23		19		27	27		28		24	23
Avg Max Increase		-2.63%		-1.09%		-2.69%	-1.05%		-6.23%		-4.19%	-3.54%
Max Increase		-4.49%		-1.09%		-4.25%	-1.05%		-6.23%		-4.19%	-5.12%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2		1		6	17		35		10	3
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	No			Not Yet
High	2651.70	2524.65	2509.45	2632.55	2743.00	2726.00	2675.00	2528.35	2574.40	2817.95	2790.55	2896.65
Low	2350.20	2426.30	2392.75	2398.85	2554.95	2551.40	2467.65	2322.40	2348.55	2555.70	2677.85	2715.35
Close/Last	2512.15	2490.40	2406.65	2622.35	2728.45	2645.45	2502.10	2366.40	2563.60	2781.55	2732.20	2890.65