MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S&P MidCap 400 Index as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Closed Higher		2	1	2	2	2	3	1	3	2		3
Exceeded High		2	1	2	1	2	1	1	3	2		3
Scenario Percentage		100%	100%	100%	50%	100%	33%	100%	100%	100%		100%
Avg Max Increase		6.57%	14.64%	7.90%	6.55%	10.11%	10.33%	10.79%	4.71%	3.68%		9.06%
Max Increase		11.90%	14.64%	11.32%	6.55%	18.21%	10.33%	10.79%	5.99%	4.92%		17.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	15	29	10	9	8	11	9	24		15
Avg Max Decline		-1.38%	0.29%	-4.72%	0.38%	-5.12%	-0.11%	-3.10%	-1.47%	-6.83%		-1.10%
Max Decline		-2.34%	0.29%	-5.84%	0.38%	-9.32%	-0.11%	-3.10%	-2.71%	-8.18%		-4.38%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	1	6	1	10	1	9	9	22		2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes					Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Closed Lower			1	1	1	1		2		1	3
Penetrated Low			1	1		1		1		1
Scenario Percentage			100%	100%	0%	100%		50%		100%	0%
Avg Max Decline			5.73%	34.85%		12.51%		5.40%		10.08%
Max Decline			5.73%	34.85%		12.51%		5.40%		10.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline			24	23		16		19		27
Avg Max Increase			-4.19%	-5.12%		-4.49%		-1.09%		-4.25%
Max Increase			-4.19%	-5.12%		-4.49%		-1.09%		-4.25%
Avg Days to Max Increase			10	3		4		1		12
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	No	Yes	No			Yes	Not Yet
High	2577.80	2598.85	2652.95	2738.90	2651.70	2524.65	2509.45	2632.55	2743.00	2726.00	2675.00
Low	2326.45	2378.00	2401.40	2576.00	2350.20	2426.30	2392.75	2398.85	2554.95	2551.40	2467.65
Close/Last	2577.80	2430.40	2652.60	2600.85	2512.15	2490.40	2406.65	2622.35	2728.45	2645.45	2502.10