MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S&P MidCap 400 Index as of Oct 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Closed Higher		1	1	1	2	2	1	2	2		2	1
Exceeded High		1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2		2	1
Scenario Percentage		100%	100%	100%	100%	50%	100%	100%	100%		100%	100%
Avg Max Increase		14.64%	11.32%	6.55%	10.11%	10.33%	10.79%	4.42%	3.68%		13.79%	7.66%
Max Increase		14.64%	11.32%	6.55%	18.21%	10.33%	10.79%	5.99%	4.92%		22.86%	7.66%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	29	10	9	8	11	6	24		18	28
Avg Max Decline		0.29%	-3.61%	0.38%	-5.12%	-0.11%	-3.10%	-1.32%	-6.83%		0.53%	0.31%
Max Decline		0.29%	-3.61%	0.38%	-9.32%	-0.11%	-3.10%	-2.71%	-8.18%		0.24%	0.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		1	5	1	10	1	9	11	22		1	2
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	No		No		Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Closed Lower			1	1			1			2		1
Penetrated Low			1				1					1
Scenario Percentage			100%	0%			100%			0%		100%
Avg Max Decline			34.85%				5.40%					2.33%
Max Decline			34.85%				5.40%					2.33%
Avg Days To Max Decline			23				19					20
Avg Max Increase			-5.12%				-1.09%					-4.36%
Max Increase			-5.12%				-1.09%					-4.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase			3				1					7
2022 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			Yes		No		Yes	Not Yet
High	2864.70	2877.35	2745.70	2780.90	2729.00	2612.60	2567.75	2520.00	2646.00	2534.45	2445.80
Low	2645.60	2497.65	2484.45	2506.20	2497.35	2326.15	2187.40	2229.05	2427.60	2185.95	2192.25
Close/Last	2842.00	2635.40	2661.50	2693.65	2500.25	2514.80	2268.90	2512.75	2431.05	2203.55	2433.05