MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Wheat(MGE) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		23	26	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		12	11	12	15	12	9	14	14	13	13	11
Exceeded High		10	9	10	11	8	4	10	10	11	8	3
Scenario Percentage		83%	82%	83%	73%	67%	44%	71%	71%	85%	62%	27%
Avg Max Increase		8.57%	10.34%	9.20%	14.41%	16.12%	15.40%	15.27%	13.35%	8.89%	6.83%	7.10%
Max Increase		33.64%	35.17%	31.40%	46.52%	31.28%	31.93%	42.57%	31.97%	30.27%	22.04%	12.32%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	15	11	17	19	23	23	15	20	10	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.54%	-3.87%	-0.89%	-1.57%	-2.65%	-2.73%	-3.10%	-1.25%	-2.27%	-2.46%	-0.94%
Max Decline		-3.46%	-12.03%	-3.83%	-6.73%	-7.76%	-6.81%	-9.68%	-3.94%	-11.73%	-5.17%	-1.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	12	8	5	8	4	8	12	9	10	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	No				No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		23	26	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		10	14	16	13	16	19	14	14	14	15	17
Penetrated Low		7	10	14	11	15	16	13	11	12	12	7
Scenario Percentage		70%	71%	88%	85%	94%	84%	93%	79%	86%	80%	41%
Avg Max Decline		3.99%	4.25%	5.20%	5.04%	7.45%	8.58%	7.42%	8.14%	7.21%	6.01%	3.81%
Max Decline		7.08%	10.98%	16.31%	9.41%	16.20%	20.77%	15.57%	32.68%	21.66%	18.25%	7.69%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	16	17	18	19	16	15	18	20	17	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.20%	-1.84%	-2.63%	-3.77%	-2.54%	-2.38%	-2.79%	-1.52%	-2.08%	-2.31%	-0.73%
Max Increase		-1.83%	-4.25%	-13.20%	-12.23%	-8.34%	-7.13%	-14.43%	-5.36%	-5.20%	-5.41%	-2.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	12	10	10	9	6	6	5	15	5	2
2008 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	878.00	1088.00	1315.00	1300.50	1100.00	930.00	1050.00	972.00	1007.00	864.50	750.00	682.50
Low	787.00	855.00	979.50	989.00	877.25	840.00	858.75	867.00	844.50	743.00	585.50	585.00
Close/Last	844.50	984.00	1113.00	1003.75	892.75	875.00	965.00	880.00	869.75	746.75	647.50	599.50